C H A P T E R 1
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 1
5
FIGURE 1.1
Global prospects
COVID-19 has continued to spread, with sharp resurgences in some areas.
Global economic activity, which started to rebound in mid-2020, has
moderated. The fall in global investment last year was sharp, particularly
for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) excluding China.
The 2020 global recession was somewhat less pronounced than previously
expected due to shallower contractions in advanced economies and a
more robust recovery in China, whereas most other EMDEs experienced
deeper recessions. Global activity is forecast to remain well below pre-
pandemic projections as the recovery is hampered by the pandemic’s
lingering effects.
Sources:
Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports (database); Haver Analytics; Our World in
Data (database); World Bank.
Note:
AEs = advanced economies; EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; FCS =
fragile and conflict-affected situations; LICs = low-income countries.
A. Figure shows seven-day moving average of the daily new COVID-19 cases. Last observation is
December 15, 2020. Sample consists of 36 advanced economies and 147 EMDEs.
B. Data are daily for mobility, monthly for industrial production and retail sales, and quarterly for GDP.
Mobility is the simple average of movement trends as reported in the Google COVID-19 Community
Mobility Report. Daily movement trends are calculated as deviations from the baseline, which is the
median value during the five-week period January 3 - February 6, 2020. Last observation is 2020Q3
for GDP, September 2020 for retail sales, and October 2020 for the other indicators.
C. Investment refers to gross fixed capital formation. Aggregate growth is calculated with real
investment at 2010 prices and market exchange rates as weights. Sample includes 141 countries,
consisting of 36 advanced economies and 105 EMDEs.
D. Shaded area indicates forecasts. Data for 2020 are estimates. Aggregate growth rates calculated
using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates.
E. Figure shows the contribution to forecast revisions relative to the June 2020 edition of the
Global
Economic Prospects
report.
F. Figure shows the gaps between the current projections and the forecasts released in the January
2020 edition of the
Global Economic Prospects
report.
Click here to download data and charts.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: