C H A P T E R 1
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 1
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likely to contribute to
a further decline in trade
uncertainty.
Global trade is projected to contract by 9.5
percent in 2020—comparable to the decline
during the 2009 global recession but affecting a
markedly larger share of economies—before
growing by an average of 5.1 percent in 2021-22.
The moderate pickup in global trade reflects
persistently subdued global investment and the
gradual and incomplete
recovery of global travel,
and is expected to result in a further decline in the
trade intensity of activity.
Financial markets
Aggressive policy actions by central banks kept the
global financial system from falling into crisis last
year. Financial conditions are generally loose, as
suggested by low borrowing costs, abundant credit
issuance, and a recovery in equity market
valuations amid positive news about vaccine
developments (figure 1.5.A; Altavilla et al. 2020).
This masks rising underlying vulnerabilities,
however, including
rising debt levels and
weakening bank balance sheets.
Debt burdens have increased as corporates have
faced a period of sharply reduced sales and
sovereigns have financed large stimulus packages
(box 1.1). This follows a decade in which global
debt had already risen to a record high of 230
percent of GDP by 2019.
High debt levels leave
borrowers vulnerable to a sudden change in
investor risk appetite. This is especially true for
riskier borrowers and EMDEs dependent on
capital inflows to finance large fiscal and external
current account deficits (figure 1.5.B).
Capital
inflows to many EMDEs remain soft, with
significant weakness in both foreign direct
investment (FDI) and portfolio flows (figure
1.5.C; World Bank 2020b). This, alongside a
collapse of export revenues,
has led to substantial
currency depreciations and rising borrowing costs
in some countries, particularly commodity
exporters (figure 1.5.D; Hofmann, Shim, and
Shin 2020; Hördahl and Shim 2020).
Banks’ capital buffers are under pressure due to
falling profitability and asset quality deterioration.
Defaults have already
surged in the hardest-hit
sectors and countries, and rising credit
downgrades point to further strains in the future
(Banerjee, Cornelli, and Zakrajšek 2020). These
developments reduce
the resilience of financial
systems, particularly in countries with weaker
banking systems or without the policy space to
provide sufficient support to stressed financial
institutions.
Commodity markets
Most commodity prices rebounded in the second
half of last year; however, the pickup in oil prices
lagged the broader recovery
in commodity prices
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