Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

Cost Effectiveness of Early Warning (Hallegate, 2012). This study looked at the benefits that would arise 

from investment in early warning by looking at the benefits of such systems in developed countries and then 

extrapolating these to developing countries. It estimates returns of between $4 and $36 for every $1 spent on 

investment in early warning.

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26

7  Taking forecast-based 

early action to scale

As forecasts continue to improve, the use and geographical 

coverage of FbA mechanisms is growing. Learning from 

successes and failures is contributing to the development 

and institutionalisation of the approach. Organisations 

and governments running FbA initiatives, as well as 

donors investing in early action, are attempting to scale 

up pilots in order to achieve greater impact in preventing 

and dealing with disasters by covering more people, more 

hazards and more countries. As these initiatives expand, 

the community has gained experience and is continually 

growing the evidence base on effective processes and 

impacts. This experience and evidence provide guidance 

for further FbA development. Scaling up may also help 

early action become more efficient through sharing 

information and resources and coordinating action. The 

Red Cross in Peru and Ecuador, for instance, has been 

covering heavy rains, volcanic ash, Amazon flooding, 

snowfall and cold waves. Addressing several hazards, 

rather than just one, has made its presence, and efforts 

to build and train local teams working on forecast-based 

financing, more cost-effective. Scaling up FbA through 

institutionalisation may strengthen coherence between 

humanitarian and development approaches and between 

different agencies and governments. Institutional change 

through FbA is expected to include more robust decision-

making and more effective allocation of aid, as well as 

improved long-term financial planning in government and 

humanitarian systems.