Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

Figure 5    Illustration of possible outcomes of forecast-

based early action

Source: adapted from Suarez and Tall (2010). 

‘Worthy Action’

Action cost

‘Fail to Act’

Response cost

‘Act in Vain’

Action cost + additional

costs/benefits

‘Worthy Inaction’

No cost

ACTION

INACTION

EXTREME EVENT

NO EXTREME EVENT

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25

Box 4    Examples of evidence on the costs and benefits of early action

USAID Economics of Resilience (Cabot Venton, 2018). The study evaluated the economics of early response 

and resilience across a population of 15 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. The study found that 

investment in early response and resilience could have saved $4.3 billion over the previous 15 years, or an 

average of $287 million per year. Every dollar spent on safety net and resilience programming results in net 

benefits of between $2.30 and $3.30. The US government could have saved $1.6 billion over the last 15 years, 

or 30%, on its humanitarian aid spend in these three countries. Incorporating the avoided losses to households, 

the model estimates net savings of $4.2 billion to the US.