Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

6.2   Other cost–benefit considerations

6.2.1   How early is early?

In Box 4, the USAID and DFID models assume that ‘early’ 

means before negative coping strategies are employed. 

However, in an assessment of the 2015 drought in Somali 

region, Ethiopia, evidence suggested that people started to 

be affected a full two years before the crisis was formally 

recognised. This example raises the question how early is 

early enough? It also suggests that FbA would be more 

effective if longer-term development interventions were 

more explicitly focused on building the resilience of 

vulnerable populations to address chronic drought risk. 

There is however little empirical evidence regarding the 

‘right’ timing: assessments of the impact of intervening just 

before the crisis, as compared to six months beforehand, 

for example, are non-existent.