Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think



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Factfulness Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World—and Why Things

In Balance with Nature
When a population is not growing over a long period of time, and the
population curve is flat, this must mean that each generation of new parents is
the same size as the previous one. For thousands of years up to 1800 the
population curve was almost flat. Have you heard people say that humans
used to live in balance with nature?
Well, yes, there was a balance. But let’s avoid the rose-tinted glasses. Until
1800, women gave birth to six children on average. So the population should
have increased with each generation. Instead, it stayed more or less stable.
Remember the child skeletons in the graveyards of the past? On average four
out of six children died before becoming parents themselves, leaving just two
surviving children to parent the next generation. There was a balance. It
wasn’t because humans 
lived
in balance with nature. Humans 
died
in balance
with nature. It was utterly brutal and tragic.
Today, humanity is once again reaching a balance. The number of parents is
no longer increasing. But this balance is dramatically different from the old
balance. The new balance is nice: the typical parents have two children, and
neither of them dies. For the first time in human history, we 
live
in balance.
The population grew from 1.5 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000 because
humanity went through a transition from one balance to another during the
twentieth century, a unique period of human history when two parents on
average produced more than two children who survived to become parents
themselves in the next generation.


That period of imbalance is the reason why today the two youngest
generations are larger than the others. That period of imbalance is the reason
behind the fill-up. But the new balance is already achieved: the annual
number of births is no longer increasing. If extreme poverty keeps falling, and
sex education and contraception keep spreading, then the world population
will keep growing fast, but only until the inevitable fill-up is completed.

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