Direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic and response in South Asia

Chapter 3

Results

16

Chapter 3: Results

COVID-19 predicted morbidity and mortality

Based on the results of our extended SIER model, and a potential status quo in infection control and prevention measures, an additional half a million deaths due to COVID-19 are possible in South Asia, between October 2020 and September 2021, (Table 7). This is the number of individuals expected to die of COVID-19, and who likely would not have died in the absence of the pandemic i.e. additional deaths. The highest number of deaths are expected occur in India, with more than 490,000 deaths projected to occur in the country during this period.

Not surprisingly, the expected number of hospital- izations and ICU admission are also expected to be highest in India, with the numbers expected to rise to their highest level in February 2021 (Table 7).

Results for individual mitigations strategies are presented in Appendix B.

Since the observed number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are rising most rapidly in India, compared

to other South Asian countries, the impact of

modelling the increased coverage and effectiveness of mitigation strategies is also highest in the country (Table 7). Instituting all mitigation strategies could

reduce the numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 by 83% (491,117 deaths under the no-additional

mitigation scenario vs. 85,821 deaths if all strategies were instituted; Table 7). Similar effects are also

noted for hospitalizations and ICU admissions, both of which are expected to decrease by 75% in February

2021, if all mitigation strategies are instituted (Table 7). Results for individual mitigation strategies are

presented in Appendix B.

Table 7: Estimated number of COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions, by mitigation response and country