Direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic and response in South Asia

Variable name	Description	No intervention	Hand hygiene	Face masks	Smart lockdowns
Comments
f.num	Initial number of fatalities.	0 at start of calibration. Simulation starts with the value obtained at the end of the calibration period.				Assumed zero at the beginning of calibration. Recorded fatalities before start of simulation run are added to the eventual total after rescaling.
act.rate.i	The daily number of exposure events (encounters) between susceptible and infectious (symptomatic).	Calibrated e to match fatalities data – discussed in manuscript.	No change from the calibrated value.	No change from the calibrated value.	4% reduction off the calibrated value.
inf.prob.i	Probability of passing on infection at each exposure event between infectious (symptomatic) people and susceptible.	Calibrated e to match fatalities data – discussed in e manuscript.	10% reduction off the calibrated value.	7% reduction off the calibrated value.	No change from the calibrated value.
act.rate.e	The number of exposure events (encounters) between susceptible and exposed (asymptomatic) per day.	Same as act.rate.i.
inf.prob.e	Probability of passing on infection at each exposure event between exposed (asymptomatic) people and susceptible.	2/3 of inf.prob.i.
act.rate.q	The daily number of exposure events (encounters) between susceptible and quarantined (symptomatic)	25% of act.rate.e.
inf.prob.q	Probability of passing on infection at each exposure event between quarantined (symptomatic) people and susceptible.	Same as inf.prob.i.
quar.rate	Rate per day at which symptomatic (or tested positive), infected people enter self-isolation	0.033333				Value chosen to reflect a 50% probability of self-isolation within 21 days since onset of symptoms.
hosp.rate	Rate per day at which symptomatic (or tested positive), infected people require hospital care	Calibrated to match fatalities data – discussed in manuscript.
disch.rate	Rate per day at which people requiring hospital care recover	0.066667				Daily recovery rate of 2%
prog.rate	Rate per day at which infected and asymptomatic people become symptomatic.	0.048305				50% of exposed individuals develop symptoms within 2 weeks
rec.rate	Rate per day at which infected and symptomatic people recover.	0.05				Expected recovery duration of 20 days from onset of symptoms (Default value used by Tim Churches)
fat.rate.base	Baseline daily mortality rate for people needing hospitalisation.	Calibrated to match fatalities data – discussed in manuscript.