Direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic and response in South Asia

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• Economic impact of COVID-19 control measures

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In the absence of an effective vaccine or clinical treatment, the main strategy used to control the spread of disease has been non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing measures, school closures, travel restrictions and nationwide lockdowns. All of these have resulted in wide-ranging disruption of economic activities.

To assess the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic response by different stages of severity of mitigation measures, we estimated the impact on GDP, poverty and food insecurity, resulting from wage loss due

to the proportion of industry-specific labor force laid off at each stage (Table 16).

It is not surprising that the economic impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies worsens with the severity of these strategies, with the most severe stage (Stage 4) resulting in a 20 – 28% year-on-year decrease in GDP, with consequent implications for rates of national poverty and food insecurity. Even at the least severe stage (Stage 1), the increase in the share of the population who is food insecure could range from 17.4% in Afghanistan to 18.9% in Sri Lanka. The estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and response, across the range of economic indicators, is summarized in Table 16.

© UNICEF/India/UNI342676/Panjwani/2020