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Meksika Iqtisodiyoti

Gross Domestic Product
Index 4Q-2019 = 100, s.a.
Source: Own calculations using data from IMF.
World countries
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
d
ic. 20
19
fe
b
. 2020
ab
r.
2020
ju
n
. 2
020
ago
. 202
0
o
ct.
20
20
d
ic. 20
20
fe
b
. 2021
ab
r.
2021
ju
n
. 2
021
ago
. 202
1
o
ct.
20
21
d
ic. 20
21
Brasil
Chile
México
Estados Unidos

Global inflation
•
High inflation is a widespread global
phenomenon.

It has affected multiple countries and
regions.
•
Mexico’s inflation rate is not higher
than that of other countries which had
similar inflationary dynamics before
the pandemic.
•
The inflation gap between Mexico and
the US is minimal.
6
Annual Inflation Rate
%
Source: Own calculations using data from IMF.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
en
e. 19
ab
r.
19
ju
l.
19
o
ct. 19
en
e. 20
ab
r.
20
ju
l.
20
o
ct. 20
en
e. 21
ab
r.
21
ju
l.
21
o
ct. 21
European countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
en
e. 19
ab
r.
19
ju
l.
19
o
ct. 19
en
e. 20
ab
r.
20
ju
l.
20
o
ct. 20
en
e. 21
ab
r.
21
ju
l.
21
o
ct. 21
en
e. 22
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
en
e. 19
ab
r.
19
ju
l.
19
o
ct. 19
en
e. 20
ab
r.
20
ju
l.
20
o
ct. 20
en
e. 21
ab
r.
21
ju
l.
21
o
ct. 21
en
e. 22
Canada
Mexico
United States
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges

Markets expect higher interest rates in advanced economies
•
Global monetary and financial conditions are
expected to tighten in the near future.
•
This might represent an underlying force in
favor of the US dollar and other currencies of
advanced economies.
7
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
―
European Central Bank deposit rate
―
OIS implicit trajectory 24 Feb 2022
---
OIS implicit trajectory 03 Dec 2021
End of
2020
End of
2021
End of
2023
Fo
re
c
a
s
ts
―
US Federal Reserve 2/
―
Bank of England
―
Bank of Japan
―
Bank of Canada
End of
2022
Reference Rate and OIS Implicit Trajectories
1/
Percentage
Source: Bloomberg. 1/OIS: interest rate swap between a fixed and a floating rate where the fixed interest rate is the effective overnight reference rate.2/For the United States effective overnight rate, we are using the
mean of the Federal Funds rate range (0.0% - 0.25%).

-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
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ro
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Mexico maintains solid macroeconomic fundamentals
•
Unlike other countries, Mexico
opted for a conservative fiscal
policy during the pandemic.

In 2021, the Mexican primary
balance was low relative to
other countries.
•
Mexico
has
registered
manageable current account
levels in the last three years,
compared to previous years.
8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Ru
ss
ia
Me
xico
Cos
ta
Rica
U
kr
ain
e
Braz
il
Sw
itz
erlan
d
Tu
rk
e
y
Sw
ed
e
n
Po
lan
d
Kore
a
Pe
ru
In
d
o
n
e
si
a
Ma
lay
sia
Sou
th
Afric
a
H
u
n
gary
Is
ra
el
Ph
ili
p
p
in
es
Rom
an
ia
Col
o
m
b
ia
In
d
ia
Eu
ro
A
re
a
Th
ail
an
d
N
ew
Z
eala
n
d
Chin
a
Can
ad
a
Cze
ch
Rep
u
b
lic
Au
stra
lia
Chile N
o
rw
ay
Jap
an
U
n
ite
d
S
ta
te
s
U
n
ite
d
K
in
gd
o
m
Primary Balance as % of GDP 2021, selected countries
Primary Balance as % of GDP 2021, Mexico
Fuente: Own calculations using data from IMF–Fiscal Monitor and World
Economic Outlook
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
Current Account Balance as % of GDP 2021, Mexico
•
Cuentas externas a través de los países
Current Account as % of GDP 2021, selected countries
Note: Mexican primary balance for 2021 uses data from
SCHP report “Economía y las Finanzas Públicas” fourth
quarter of 2021.

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
Inflation in Mexico
Explanatory factors that have been more
persistent than originally anticipated:
10
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
Source: Prepared with data from INEGI
•
The inflationary phenomenon has continued in Mexico,
although headline inflation appears to have reached a
maximum in November 2021. In turn, core inflation should
also reach a maximum in March or April of 2022.
1.
High international levels of commodity prices.
2.
Changes in global and local consumption
patterns of households.
3.
Supply restrictions: bottlenecks in production
processes, global shortages of essential inputs,
logistical problems, etc.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
en
e.-19
mar.-19
may.
-19
ju
l.-
19
se
p
.-19
n
o
v.-
19
en
e.-20
mar.-20
may.
-20
ju
l.-
20
se
p
.-20
n
o
v.-
20
en
e.-21
mar.-21
may.
-21
ju
l.-
21
se
p
.-21
n
o
v.-
21
en
e.-22
Headline Inflation
Core
Non-core
Consumer Price Index
annual % change

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: A MAJOR CHALLENGE
GDP, employment, consumption, investment and credit
11
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
GDP gap
•
To calculate trend GDP, we fit the following
regression:
ln 𝑦
𝑡
= 𝛼 + 𝛽𝑡 + 𝜖
𝑡
Where
𝑦
𝑡
is real GDP,
𝑡
is time,
𝜖
𝑡
is an error term, and
𝛼 =
16.14
and
𝛽 = 0.0058
are parameters.
•
These calculations imply an annual trend growth
of 2.32%.
•
The percentage difference between actual GDP
and its trend was -11.9% in 4Q-2021.
12
Source: Own calculations using data from INEGI
Gross Domestic Product, log units
16.0
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
16.8
16.9
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
GDP (natural logarithm)
Trend 93-16
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges

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