Chapter 6 Financial Forecasting


Introducing Uncertainty to the Forecast: Simulation



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Chapter 06

Introducing Uncertainty to the Forecast: Simulation

  • Figure 6.3
  • NewCompany revenue simulation assumptions
  • The earliest that successful development can occur is Month 8. After Month 8, the probability of development success is exponentially distributed with a mean of 18 months (26 months including the first 8). However, if development is not completed within 48 months, then it is clear that successful development of a valuable product is no longer feasible.
  • If development is successful, the rapid-growth stage is expected to end around Month 60, after which it is expected that unit sales growth will fall to zero. The uncertainty about when the rapid-growth stage will end is normally distributed with a mean of 60 and standard deviation of three months.
  • Sales begin the month after development is successful. The initial sales level is expected to be 100 units.
  • The initial selling price is subject to uncertainty depending on the quality of the development result and competitive factors. This uncertainty is normally distributed with a mean of $200 and a standard deviation of $10. After the first month of sales, the selling price increases at the rate of inflation each month.
  • During the rapid-growth period, monthly unit sales growth is normally distributed with a mean of 8 percent and a standard deviation of 1.5 percent.
  • Inflation is forecast to be 0.50 percent per month.

Introducing Uncertainty to the Forecast: Simulation

  • Simulating development timing example
    • 10% chance of development failure
  • Using Venture.SIM
  • Month
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • Probability of success
  • 20%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • Figure 6.4

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