Chapter 6 Financial Forecasting



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Chapter 06

  • Chapter 6 METHODS OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING: REVENUE

Learning Objectives

  • Understand the principles of financial forecasting
  • Prepare a revenue forecast for an established firm
  • Prepare a sales forecast for a new venture using yardsticks and fundamental analysis
  • Incorporate demand and supply considerations into the revenue forecast
  • Estimate revenue uncertainty using sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and simulation

Benefits of Financial Forecasting

  • Provides a disciplined means of evaluating the cash need of a venture
  • Aids in determining whether a proposed venture deserves the entrepreneur’s investment of capital and effort
  • Allows comparison of strategic alternatives
  • Helps the entrepreneur and investors understand the strengths and weaknesses of the venture
  • Represents a benchmark for assessing project development

Overview of Financial Forecasting

  • Financial modeling
    • Revenue forecast
    • Income statement forecast
    • Balance sheet forecast
    • Integration and cash flow forecast
  • Revenue forecasting
    • Approaches
      • Naïve
      • Yardsticks
      • Fundamental
    • Information sources
  • Forecasting uncertainty
    • Scenarios
    • Sensitivity
    • Simulation

Principles of Financial Forecasting

Forecasting Revenue of an Established Business

  • May be able to develop a reliable revenue forecast based on its prior sales experience
  • Example

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