Canelo / Arts Council England

Canelo / Arts Council England | 
12

Literature in the 21st Century: Understanding Models of Support for Literary Fiction
In absolute terms then, the value of the literary fiction market is not 
healthy. The overall picture for printed books, and especially fiction, is
at best muted, and at worst represents a permanent and significant
fall back. 
It is instructive, however, to compare the general situation with the 
US. There, book sales rose 2.5% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016, a move 
that was generally regarded as extremely positive, as this followed 
years of falling sales. But sales for fiction were not healthy, falling 1% 
in 2016
1
. Bookstore sales went from $17bn in 2007 to just $10.9bn in 
2014, although this had climbed again to nearly $12bn by the close of 
2016. Much of this is to do with ebooks, digital sales, the recession and 
perhaps most worryingly, a shift in consumer habits
2
. Sales are still a 
third down on 2007. In Japan the situation is even worse – the market 
peaked in 1996, with year-on-year declines posted every year since. In 
this context, the UK market looks comparatively healthy.
Value doesn’t tell the whole story, however. While quantities of books 
sold roughly track value, they also reveal some interesting trends in their 
own right – trends that are critical to understanding how literary writers 
are to support themselves today. It is not just the total value of books 
that has fallen – it is the price at which individual copies are sold. 
According to the Nielsen BookScan data, the average selling price for 
hardback fiction is down 44% in real terms since 2001. In 2016 the 
average hardback fiction title sold for £10.12 whereas in 2001 it sold for 
£11.91. Adjusted for inflation (using the UK Office of National Statistics 
Consumer Price Inflation [CPI] Index as the benchmark) this would 
equate to £18.06 in 2016 terms. 
The average selling price for paperbacks is down 25.2% in real terms 
over the same period. In 2016 the average paperback fiction title sold 
for £7.42 against a 2001 figure of £6.89. Adjusted for inflation, the 2001 
price would have been £10.45. This means that even for the value to 
stay still, many more books would need to have been sold, whereas 
instead there were substantial declines in volume terms. Writers and 
publishers are hence hit with a double whammy: falling book sales 
overall, and falling dividends for the sales they are making. It is not clear 
how long these two trends will continue. There is, however, evidence 
that the price of hardbacks is starting to increase (discussed in section 
three below). We believe this increase, like much of the decreases, can 
be explained by the introduction of the ebook format. 
1
https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/72450-print-book-sales-rose-again-in-2016.
html 
2
http://publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/69388-bookstore-sales-had-first-gain-in-eight-
years-in-2015.html and
https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/72792-bookstore-sales-rose-2-5-in-2016.
html 

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