Thinking about Reform and Grand Corruption
The high profile case of Gulnara Karimova projected the image of a political-economy where
lucrative sectors were being seized by senior regime figures, and their close affiliates, through
opaque means that relied on the covert and improper application of authoritarian state power.
These commercial arrangements readily availed of international corporate and financial
infrastructure to further conceal activities, launder proceeds, and safely manage assets abroad. The
application of coercive state-power was used to intimidate targets of different racketeering
operations.
Research into two of the most significant projects shepherded into being by the Mirziyoyev
government, indicates that they exhibit some of the same core governance weaknesses and
corporate red flags that marked the preceding era. It cannot be factually inferred that the same
forms of criminality are generating these red flags. However, in light of previous patterns, their
systematic appearance is a matter of serious concern.
In the case of Tashkent City companies closely linked to the Mayor benefited from significant state
facilitated investment and construction opportunities, awarded under notably opaque conditions.
These companies employ extensive offshore structures which serve to conceal beneficial ownership
arrangements. Tashkent City construction activities were prefaced by the use of coercion against
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Letter from Thomas Anwander, General Counsel, Rieter Management AG, to Professor Kristian Lasslett, Ulster University, 18 October
2019.
323
Moscow City Arbitration Court, Case No. A40-45399 / 18-25-340, Decision, 23 May 2019; Moscow City Arbitration Court, Case No A40-
228454 / 17-25-1453, Decision, 8 May 2018.
324
Deposit Insurance Agency, On filing an application on bringing subsidiary liability of controlling Starbank JSC, March 2019,
https://www.asv.org.ru/liquidation/news/570136/
325
Andrew Zayakin and Irek Murtazin, How are bankruptcy of a bank in Moscow and a fish factory in St. Petersburg connected with the
serene life of Russians in Geneva, Novaya Gazeta, August 2018, https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2018/08/24/77590-shveytsarskiy-beglets
326
Beshariq Tekstil JSC, Company Extract, 35/2, accessed 22 December 2019; Vertical Alliance LLP, Company Extract, OC321610,
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/OC321610/filing-history
327
Amudaryotex LLC, Company Extract, 94, accessed 8 January 2019; Welroy Technology Ltd, Company Extract, 06857165,
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/06857165/filing-history
328
Email from Mr Agadzhan Avanesov to Professor Kristian Lasslett, 26 February 2020.
329
In St. Petersburg, a wanted co-owner of Starbank was spotted. The investigation believed that he lives in Switzerland, Fontanka, July
2019, https://www.fontanka.ru/2019/07/07/015/
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residents, while subsequently according to news reports the Mayor has been recorded making
threats to disappear journalists. Similarly, the cotton cluster research reveals state facilitated
opportunities and aid, was awarded to corporate operators through an administrative process
fundamentally lacking transparency. A significant number of corporate operators were found to be
opaque, and making active use of offshore holding structures, which served to conceal beneficial
ownership arrangements. Serious evidence was uncovered which tied cluster operators to improper
activity. Since this study was concluded news reports have appeared, which accuse cluster operators
of employing coercive tactics against farmers and workers.
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In all of the above cases, the
Mirziyoyev government potentially breached its own law by failing to respond to lawful requests for
public administrative documents.
This data serves as an important reminder. Uzbekistan’s political economy functions through the
close integration of authoritarian politics with choreographed market activity. In a country as large
as Uzbekistan, there clearly remains space for business to emerge on a licit footing. However, at the
upper echelons of society, where some of the most lucrative trade is done, evidence indicates that
success is premised in part on political influence, the opaque provision of state aid which gives
selected businesses commercial advantages, and the tactical use of illicit commercial strategies to
engorge rates of profit and monopolise economic opportunities.
In the post-Karimov era it appears the upper hand has been gained by a more entrepreneurial class
of elites, who can navigate this system with dexterity to accumulate wealth across a range of
industries. Ground has been lost by a more conservative class of rent-seeking officials tied to the
security state. Modest accommodations have also been made to civil society by the Mirziyoyev
government. However, this appears to be driven more by reputational concerns that impact on
investor/business confidence, rather than a conversion to liberal politics.
It would seem likely the Mirziyoyev government will achieve some success in implementing its
modernising agenda. To the extent this grows the national wealth, it will disproportionately benefit
elite networks, although this will likely take place alongside a general improvement in the standards
of living for the wider population. With a larger economic pie, there is the potential for growing
clusters of power to emerge allied to the President, but which also have independent capacity to
prosecute political and economic objectives, navigating authoritarian capitalism to the power-
cluster’s benefit. Indeed it is no contradiction to imagine that a successful process of authoritarian
modernisation will increase levels of grand corruption, as different power-clusters look to game the
system to augment their political influence and financial returns. In this scenario, which looks a likely
one, opening up civil society, growing democratic institutions, and cultivating genuine agencies of
oversight and accountability, constitutes a structure and culture that is highly antagonistic to this
system as it stands, and thus is a dimmer prospect.
The outcomes of this prospective balance will be acceptable to many national and international
elites who will benefit from a stable system of authoritarian capitalism mediated by certain unsaid
national ‘realities’ i.e. systematic grand corruption, while improved standards of living and the
continuing limits placed on civil society will weaken the potential for the type of spontaneous
uprisings that were observed in the Middle East and Africa. And in a world where authoritarian
politics is making a return, as global capitalism struggles with a range of existential threats,
Uzbekistan’s state may find itself increasingly the norm rather than the exception.
330
Uzbek Forum for Human Rights, Cotton clusters and the despair of Uzbek farmers: Land confiscations, blank contracts and failed
payments, April 2020, https://www.uzbekforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COTTON-CLUSTERS-2_compressed.pdf
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Of course, even within this prospective balance of forces, there is room for incremental progressive
change. As Uzbekistan opens up its capital markets, deregulates industries, and primes privatisation
initiatives, economic transactions will increasingly be mediated through the corporate sector. There
is a serious need to modernise the corporate law in Uzbekistan in order to strengthen corporate
governance and corporate transparency. In line with this, there has been incremental improvements
in governmental transparency. These improvements need to be built on. In particular to ensure, for
example, open registers of interests are made mandatory for public officials, all public procurement
is open and transparent, and important records, such as court documents, are made available to the
public in a timely, accessible and unredacted manner.
International jurisdictions have a role to play too. In the UK the government has strengthened
corporate transparency, but has failed to prosecute companies which submit false or improper
filings. Nor is there a substantive system in place to actively detect irregular filings. Other
jurisdictions used by Uzbekistani corporate groups such as Switzerland, Singapore, and Cyprus, are
even further behind, with corporate registers that still permit the use of nominee directors, and
where required, nominee shareholders. All of which creates an opportunity structure that allows
improper dealings in Central Asia to be processed through international corporate and financial
infrastructure, with looted value often resting in global centres of wealth, such as London, Paris and
Geneva.
Finally, independent civil society in Uzbekistan is vulnerable. It operates under an environment of
surveillance, where civil rights are far from assured. Furthermore, as Uzbekistan’s market, financial
and public infrastructure rapidly changes, they present new challenges for civil society if it is to hold
the powerful to account. This requires capacity building. We are seeing examples in the Uzbekistani
media of data-driven journalism that exposes irregular commercial and public transactions. These
seeds require nurturing. Resources are needed in order to strengthen civil society’s capacity to fully
harness data sources, rights to information, data-processing facilities, and advocacy opportunities,
so that the public has access to forensic information on the activities of government and the private
sector, synthesised with critical analysis that can enrich the public’s capacity for political agency.
Though, with opposition political activity forbidden in Uzbekistan significant limits remain in place on
the public’s political agency.
Of course, we face one known unknown in Uzbekistan – the long-term impact of COVID-19 on an
already fragile global political-economy. If a global recession is sparked, leading to serious downturn
in Central Asia, the more predatory forms of racketeering observed in the Karimova case study may
grow in appeal. If this coincides with diminished standards of living for the general population, these
structural antagonisms could indeed provide the kindling for more radical forms of political
challenge to the status quo, which we have observed for instance in neighbouring Kazakhstan.
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5. Reversing brain drain is the key to Uzbekistan’s future
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