2-laboratoriya ishi mrt-2 oybek abdulboqiyev Juftlik regressiyaning chiziqli tenglamasi. Chiziqli regressiya koeffitsiyentlarining statistik tahlili. Oddiy regressiya modellarda ishonch va bashorat intervallari

X

2000	3264669,2	10947,6
2001	3170422,4	11067,2
2002	2988419,74	61498,9399999998
2003	3725011,562	89354,7200000001
2004	4853025,21526	127687,03859
2005	5408797,3351	170435,1208
2006	6389833,05773	161719,3855
2007	8991474,7789	331425,35
2008	11493260,249	520323,75735
2009	11771281,63757	703768,293770001
2010	13023390,0157	655561,4994
2011	15021320,97958	797732,3993
2012	13599659,89352	747716,5525
2013	14322656,26276	669327,71932
2014	13545748,212054	601029,11856
2015	12507382,17204	444466,88843
2016	12094646,2708	517261,2956
2017	12553738,69883	615606,570099998
2018	13990745,40556	602503,0731
2019	17458687,69354	616959,938990001

Manba: https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/merchandise-trade-2 Ma`lumot o`rnida, jami eksport hajmi 2021-yil hisobida ming.AQSH.doll.

Ushbu masala uchun eng yaxshi model, O`zbekistonning tovar va mahsulotlari eksportida eng yuqori salmoqqa ega mamlakatlar ulishiga asoslangan model hisoblanadi. Sababi Respublikamiz bilan hamkorlikdagi Afg’oniston b/n eksporti X bilan ularning jami eksportdagi ulushi Y o‘rtasidagi korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti r=1.000

Regression Analysis: Y versus X
The regression equation is

Y = 3113076 + 16,31 X

Predictor Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant 550 2168 0.25 0.803
X 165261 397 416.60 0.000 1.00

S = 1507155 R-Sq = 90,1% R-Sq(adj) = 89,6%

Respublikamiz bilan hamkorlikdagi top 20 ta mamlakatlar eksporti Y va ularning jami eksportdagi ulushi X o‘rtasidagi determinatsiya koeffitsiyenti R²=100 ga teng.

Oddiy regressiya tenglamasi quyidagicha:
Y = 3113076 + 16,31 X
(Respublikamiz jami eksportidagi mamlakatlar ulushiga qo‘yilgan ball).
Endi bu regressiya tenglamasi yordamida bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarini topaylik. Agar X=90 (Respublikamiz jami eksportidagi top 20 ta mamlakatlar ulushiga qo‘yilgan ball) bo`lsa, ushbu mamlakatlar reytingini bashorat qilish uchun bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarini qaraylik.


Regression Analysis: Y versus X
The regression equation is
Y = 550 + 165261 X2

Predictor Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant 550 2168 0.25 0.803
X 1 3,73969E+14 3,73969E+14 164,63 0,000

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

1507155 90,14% 89,60% 88,11%


Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 1 3,73969E+14 3,73969E+14 164,63 0,000
Error 18 4,08873E+13 2,27152E+12
Total 19 4,14856E+14
Predicted Values for New Observations
Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI
3114543 634251 (1782032; 4447055) (-320828; 6549915)


Values of Predictors for New Observations
New
Obs X
1 90,0
Natijalarni tahlil qilsak, agar X=90 (Respublikamiz jami eksportidagi mamlakatlar ulushiga qo‘yilgan ball) bo`lsa, ushbu mamlakatlar reytingi 100 ga teng bo‘lishini bashorat qilish mumkin ekan. Va bu bashorat uchun 95% ishonchlilik bilan bashorat va ishonch oraliqlari quyidagiga teng:
Ishonch oralig‘i (1782032; 4447055),
Bashorat oralig‘i (-320828; 6549915)
95% ishonchlilik bilan bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarining grafik tasvirini ham ko‘rishimiz mumkin.