A shared Vision for East Allegheny July 1, 2007



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Vision Statement

The Township of North Versailles, and Boroughs of East McKeesport and Wall will commit to a long-term vision wherein the needs of existing and future residents and visitors are complemented by renewed residential and mixed use neighborhoods, while at a scale appropriate to surrounding development, provide a range of housing and service choices.


Pedestrian linkages will be provided to nearby mixed use or commercial facilities, where appropriate, through a network of trails and sidewalks. Such linkages will serve recreational needs that will link local business services to parks and residential neighborhoods. The Planning Area’s greatest transportation facilities, including the inter-modal facility, Route 30, and the planned Mon-Fayette Expressway will be utilized as assets that complement the character of the community and provide a basis for business and residential development and redevelopment. The inevitable redevelopment of the Route 30 corridor will improve the safe usage of the highway as an arterial with convenient access to adjoining businesses through limited curb cuts. Landscaping and the proper scale of development, namely in East McKeesport, will create a sense of character and place throughout the Route 30 corridor.
New Mixed Use and larger scale retail developments will create cohesive and complementing nodes of activity and destination. Likewise, the traditional downtowns and concentrated commercial and residential activity associated with the Boroughs will be enhanced and maintained in a manner that encourages the sustenance of unique localized businesses filling niches identified in the Comprehensive Plan.
A new joint municipal complex will house shared and independent Borough services at a location convenient to residents, while a renovated North Versailles Library provides a continued asset to the planning area. Future land use planning will recognize existing and planned transportation and recreation improvements, existing and adjoining land uses and neighborhood character, community character, and the residential and commercial needs of residents.
The long-term vision of the Planning Area, therefore, recognizes the interrelationships between the communities of the Planning Area and the components of the East Allegheny Multi-Municipal Comprehensive Plan.

Population Analysis

The following chapter examines population characteristics and projections for the three communities within the planning area.



Methodology

A standard age-cohort model including net migration is employed. An estimate of net migration was determined simply by subtracting the natural increase between 1990 and 2000 from the 2000 Census populations. The natural increase was simply determined by adding the recorded number of births and deaths, as recorded by the Pennsylvania Department of Vital Statistics. This assumes a population otherwise stagnant. Migrations were assumed as a constant percent of each age cohort. For example if overall net migration were –3%, a decrease equal to this percentage is assumed in each age cohort.


Age-cohort projections divide the population in to age groups and process them over five year periods. Deaths are subtracted each year and births over the five year period are assumed at a given rate for women between the ages of 15 and 44. The birth rates are based on the birth rate for each age cohort or group.
Both death and birth rates were taken from Allegheny County overall rates in the year 2000. (Pennsylvania Department of Vital Statistics)
While age-cohort populations provide a reliable predictor of future demographics, certain limitations are apparent. Firstly, an older population tends to skew the basic numbers. Approximately 25% of those homes in the planning area where the householder is 65 or more years of age are occupied by one person. Assuming that the housing stock is fairly stable and affordable, younger families or couples often move into these households as older residents move or pass away. These projections do not account for this phenomenon. Secondly, the projections assume the same migration rate which inevitably reflects the same rate of decline in housing units. If such blight is curbed and the current housing stock remains stable, the rate of out-migration will decline. Therefore, alternative scenarios for each community have been provided. They assume a rate of out migration absent the loss of any occupied housing units. The number of occupied units lost between 1990 and 2000 were multiplied by the current average household size and then divided by two to reflect a five year number. This number was added to the negative net migrations. This approach helps to address the phenomena of younger families moving into existing housing and assumes a stable housing stock.

North Versailles Township

Table 1: North Versailles, Base Projection


Age Cohort

2000 Census

2005

2010

2015

0-4

597

520

498

487

5-9

550

570

494

474

10-14

700

533

557

479

15-19

611

695

527

553

20-24

591

615

699

532

25-29

612

598

620

703

30-34

692

599

586

607

35-39

745

663

574

563

40-44

1,054

699

631

545

45-49

838

1,011

653

600

50-54

736

796

963

605

55-59

587

692

747

907

60-64

471

545

642

693

65-69

569

420

496

583

70-74

622

491

361

435

75-79

544

515

404

295

80-84

361

414

390

303

85 +

233

336

412

424

TOTAL

11,113

10,714

10,253

9,787


Table 2: North Versailles, Modified Projection


Age Cohort

2000 Census

2005

2010

2015

0-4

597

532

519

518

5-9

550

581

517

505

10-14

700

547

579

513

15-19

611

707

555

586

20-24

591

627

724

575

25-29

612

610

644

741

30-34

692

613

610

643

35-39

745

678

601

598

40-44

1,054

720

660

584

45-49

838

1,028

694

640

50-54

736

811

995

664

55-59

587

704

775

953

60-64

471

555

664

732

65-69

569

432

513

613

70-74

622

504

381

457

75-79

544

526

424

319

80-84

361

422

407

327

85 +

233

341

425

449

TOTAL

11,113

10,937

10,687

10,418

Chart 1: North Versailles, 2000 Population




The base projection assumes a population loss within North Versailles of 11.9% from the 2000 Census population to 2015, while a modified projection assumes a relatively stable population rate with a loss of 6.3%.
As a portion of the population, the modified 2015 projection anticipates of that residents, ages 65 and over will comprise 16% of the township’s population as opposed to 19% in 2000. Conversely, those 20 to 34 may comprise 19% of the population in 2015 versus 17% in 2000.
Therefore, slight growth in younger households (20-34) is expected. Slight decline in the population 65 or older is also expected with the remaining population as a proportion of the whole remaining stable.



Chart 2: North Versailles, 2015 Modified Population







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