A shared Vision for East Allegheny July 1, 2007

Vision Statement

The Township of North Versailles, and Boroughs of East McKeesport and Wall will commit to a long-term vision wherein the needs of existing and future residents and visitors are complemented by renewed residential and mixed use neighborhoods, while at a scale appropriate to surrounding development, provide a range of housing and service choices.

Pedestrian linkages will be provided to nearby mixed use or commercial facilities, where appropriate, through a network of trails and sidewalks. Such linkages will serve recreational needs that will link local business services to parks and residential neighborhoods. The Planning Area’s greatest transportation facilities, including the inter-modal facility, Route 30, and the planned Mon-Fayette Expressway will be utilized as assets that complement the character of the community and provide a basis for business and residential development and redevelopment. The inevitable redevelopment of the Route 30 corridor will improve the safe usage of the highway as an arterial with convenient access to adjoining businesses through limited curb cuts. Landscaping and the proper scale of development, namely in East McKeesport, will create a sense of character and place throughout the Route 30 corridor.
New Mixed Use and larger scale retail developments will create cohesive and complementing nodes of activity and destination. Likewise, the traditional downtowns and concentrated commercial and residential activity associated with the Boroughs will be enhanced and maintained in a manner that encourages the sustenance of unique localized businesses filling niches identified in the Comprehensive Plan.
A new joint municipal complex will house shared and independent Borough services at a location convenient to residents, while a renovated North Versailles Library provides a continued asset to the planning area. Future land use planning will recognize existing and planned transportation and recreation improvements, existing and adjoining land uses and neighborhood character, community character, and the residential and commercial needs of residents.
The long-term vision of the Planning Area, therefore, recognizes the interrelationships between the communities of the Planning Area and the components of the East Allegheny Multi-Municipal Comprehensive Plan.

Population Analysis

The following chapter examines population characteristics and projections for the three communities within the planning area.

Methodology

A standard age-cohort model including net migration is employed. An estimate of net migration was determined simply by subtracting the natural increase between 1990 and 2000 from the 2000 Census populations. The natural increase was simply determined by adding the recorded number of births and deaths, as recorded by the Pennsylvania Department of Vital Statistics. This assumes a population otherwise stagnant. Migrations were assumed as a constant percent of each age cohort. For example if overall net migration were –3%, a decrease equal to this percentage is assumed in each age cohort.

Age-cohort projections divide the population in to age groups and process them over five year periods. Deaths are subtracted each year and births over the five year period are assumed at a given rate for women between the ages of 15 and 44. The birth rates are based on the birth rate for each age cohort or group.
Both death and birth rates were taken from Allegheny County overall rates in the year 2000. (Pennsylvania Department of Vital Statistics)
While age-cohort populations provide a reliable predictor of future demographics, certain limitations are apparent. Firstly, an older population tends to skew the basic numbers. Approximately 25% of those homes in the planning area where the householder is 65 or more years of age are occupied by one person. Assuming that the housing stock is fairly stable and affordable, younger families or couples often move into these households as older residents move or pass away. These projections do not account for this phenomenon. Secondly, the projections assume the same migration rate which inevitably reflects the same rate of decline in housing units. If such blight is curbed and the current housing stock remains stable, the rate of out-migration will decline. Therefore, alternative scenarios for each community have been provided. They assume a rate of out migration absent the loss of any occupied housing units. The number of occupied units lost between 1990 and 2000 were multiplied by the current average household size and then divided by two to reflect a five year number. This number was added to the negative net migrations. This approach helps to address the phenomena of younger families moving into existing housing and assumes a stable housing stock.

North Versailles Township

Table 1: North Versailles, Base Projection

Age Cohort	2000 Census	2005	2010	2015
0-4	597	520	498	487
5-9	550	570	494	474
10-14	700	533	557	479
15-19	611	695	527	553
20-24	591	615	699	532
25-29	612	598	620	703
30-34	692	599	586	607
35-39	745	663	574	563
40-44	1,054	699	631	545
45-49	838	1,011	653	600
50-54	736	796	963	605
55-59	587	692	747	907
60-64	471	545	642	693
65-69	569	420	496	583
70-74	622	491	361	435
75-79	544	515	404	295
80-84	361	414	390	303
85 +	233	336	412	424
TOTAL	11,113	10,714	10,253	9,787

Table 2: North Versailles, Modified Projection

Age Cohort	2000 Census	2005	2010	2015
0-4	597	532	519	518
5-9	550	581	517	505
10-14	700	547	579	513
15-19	611	707	555	586
20-24	591	627	724	575
25-29	612	610	644	741
30-34	692	613	610	643
35-39	745	678	601	598
40-44	1,054	720	660	584
45-49	838	1,028	694	640
50-54	736	811	995	664
55-59	587	704	775	953
60-64	471	555	664	732
65-69	569	432	513	613
70-74	622	504	381	457
75-79	544	526	424	319
80-84	361	422	407	327
85 +	233	341	425	449
TOTAL	11,113	10,937	10,687	10,418

Chart 1: North Versailles, 2000 Population

The base projection assumes a population loss within North Versailles of 11.9% from the 2000 Census population to 2015, while a modified projection assumes a relatively stable population rate with a loss of 6.3%.
As a portion of the population, the modified 2015 projection anticipates of that residents, ages 65 and over will comprise 16% of the township’s population as opposed to 19% in 2000. Conversely, those 20 to 34 may comprise 19% of the population in 2015 versus 17% in 2000.
Therefore, slight growth in younger households (20-34) is expected. Slight decline in the population 65 or older is also expected with the remaining population as a proportion of the whole remaining stable.

Chart 2: North Versailles, 2015 Modified Population