Microsoft Word 2007 ichrie conference Proceedings Final-Final 06-06-07. doc

Table 1 
Equations of Advanced Time Series Forecasting Methods 
Method/Equations Definition 
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) 
Φ
p
(B)
∇
d
V
t
= 
Θ
q
(B)
ε
t
where V
t
= dependent variable (e.g., number of visitors in time t); 
Φ
p
= 
regression coefficients; B = the backshift operator, where B
h
V
t
= V
t-h
,; 
∇
d
= for the d
th
difference of the series V
t
; 
Θ
q
= coefficient, or called weights; 
ε
t
= residual terms. 
Economic Impact Analysis 
The defined region of this study was the surrounding counties along the Blue Ridge Parkway in North 
Carolina (including Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Madison, Swain, Transylvania, Alleghany, Ashe, 
Avery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Mitchell, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes, and Yancey) and Virginia (including 
Bedford, Botetourt, Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Grayson, Montgomery, Patrick, Pulaski, Roanoke, Wythe, Albemarle, 
Amherst, Augusta, Nelson, and Rockbridge). The model used was an input-output model named Impact Analysis 
for Planning (IMPLAN). The IMPLAN model estimated the effects of money that was brought in from outside the 

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