Uzbekistan Quality Job Creation as a Cornerstone for Sustainable Economic Growth

Uzbekistan Quality Job Creation as a Cornerstone for Sustainable Economic Growth
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whereas that of agricultural goods declined from 70% to 14% during that period 
(Figure 1.9). The boost in manufactured goods exports was mainly driven by 
increases of passenger vehicle exports. 
However, this favorable trend in export performance reversed in 2009. Since 
then, total export growth has slowed, with the value of exports declining to 
$4.9 billion in 2012 before recovering to $7.4 billion in 2016. Importantly, 
however, the export composition shifted dramatically away from agricultural 
and manufactured goods, as the share of natural resources exports increased 
(Figure 1.9). The share of manufactured exports in total exports declined 
from a record-high of 47.1% in 2012 to 20.6% in 2018. This was driven partly 
Source: Compiled from UN Comtrade database. http://unctad.org/en/Pages/statistics.aspx (accessed
14 January 2020). 
Figure 1.8: Value of Exports, Uzbekistan, 1995–2018
($ billion)
Billion
Agricultural exports
Total exports
Manufacture exports
Resource exports
0
1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016 2018
Source: Compiled from UN Comtrade. https://comtrade.un.org (accessed 14 January 2020). 
Figure 1.9: Sectoral Export Shares, Uzbekistan, 1995–2018
(%)
Percent
Agricultural exports
Manufacture exports
Resource exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016 2018

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 Macroeconomic Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges
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by a lower demand for Uzbek goods in neighboring Kazakhstan and the 
Russian Federation.
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On the other hand, the share of resource exports, the 
bulk of which is gold, has been on an upward trend since 2012. The Uzbek 
economy’s resource dependency has thus increased substantially despite 
falling commodity prices. 
Little progress has been made in export diversification. When classed by the 
level of technology (Lall classification), the export basket predominantly 
consists of primary goods, resource-based manufacturers, and gold 
(Figure 1.10). Medium-technology exports (e.g., cars) declined by 65%, 
from $1.1 billion in 2011 to $399.8 million in 2015 before recovering to
$996.5 million in 2018, while exports of low-technology products increased to 
almost $1 billion in 2017 before decreasing to $764.1 million in 2018. 
A product space analysis also suggests limited diversification of the export 
basket (Figure 1.11). Most products are clustered on the “periphery,” implying 
that the country has not yet developed the capabilities required to produce 
high-value-added goods such as machinery, metal products, construction 
materials, ships, or chemicals, all of which are in the middle portion of the 
product space. Noteworthy in this context is the temporary emergence of a 
“machinery and transport equipment” cluster, which accounted for 9.3% of 
the export basket in 2005. However, these products are no longer represented 
in the export basket, underlining the difficulty for diversifying the economy. 
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The Russian Federation entered a recession in 2015. As a result, the Russian ruble depreciated significantly, 
which meant Uzbek car exporters lost out to Russian competitors in the Kazakh car market. 
Note: Level of technology is based on the Lall classification.
Source: Compiled from UN Comtrade. https://comtrade.un.org (accessed 11 November 2019).