Constraints and Opportunities for Uzbek-Afghan Economic Relations
167
extent be determined by the success or failure of the
following top-priority measures:
1. Creation of a More Effective International
Mechanism for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan
It seems to us that the main potential for a fundamen-
tal solution to the problems of Afghanistan lies in the
creation of a more effective international mechanism
to implement targeted programs for the reconstruc-
tion of the Afghan economy. Any new program must
satisfy the following basic conditions: (1) active par-
ticipation by the leading powers,
international do-
nors, and Afghanistan’s neighbors; (2) the setting of
priorities for reconstruction; (3) the greatest possible
transparency of international money flows; and (4)
strict control over the use of international financial
and material resources. Even at the initial stage of
their implementation, these measures might give a
powerful impulse to regional economic cooperation.
From
the economic point of view, the most efficient
way to carry out reconstruction work in northern
Afghanistan is to involve companies and specialists
from Uzbekistan.
2. Accelerated Building of Transportation Arteries
The issue of building trans-Afghan transportation
arteries is of fundamental importance. In thus do-
ing, the idea of creating an international transpor-
tation consortium for Afghanistan would appear
to be worthy of consideration. The members of the
consortium could be those states with a direct in-
terest in developing a network
of transportation ar-
teries to connect the regions of Central Asia, South
Asia, and the Middle East by the shortest possible
routes. The building of trans-Afghan arteries may
lead to a significant expansion of economic ties
between Afghanistan and its neighbors. Moreover,
transportation costs in Afghanistan and in a num-
ber of other countries (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and
also countries of South Asia) may fall by over 60
percent.
This in turn may expand the international
flow of goods through Afghanistan, which in it-
self will speed up the
reconstruction of the coun-
try. For Uzbekistan, for example, a route through
Afghanistan to ports on the Indian Ocean would
reduce by more than half the distance to ports on
the Baltic and Black Seas; the former route would
also be almost 80 percent shorter than routes to
ports on the Pacific Ocean. The trans-Afghan
route of greatest interest
to Uzbekistan would start
at Termez, pass through Mazar-i-Sharif, Shibargan,
Herat, and Kandahar, and continue to internation-
al seaports in Iran (Chakhbakhar and Bender-
Abbas) and in Pakistan (Karachi). Another vital
consideration is that development of the Afghan
transportation infrastructure may be one of the
decisive factors in normalizing the socio-eco-
nomic situation in Afghanistan,
at the same time
as undermining the positions of extremist forces
and the drugs business in the country. Turning
Afghanistan into a transportation hub connecting
Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East is
objectively in the interests of all strata of Afghan
society. The large-scale development of transporta-
tion infrastructure could substantially expand the
circulation of goods among these regions through
Afghanistan. This will create many new jobs, help
to solve the problem of unemployment,
and poten-
tially lead to a significant raise in the incomes of
the Afghan population.
3. Development of Industrial and Agricultural
Cooperation between Afghanistan and Its
Neighbors
In the course of implementing various international
projects in Afghanistan, industrial and agricultural
cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbors
may give significant impetus to the country’s eco-
nomic development. Thus, Uzbekistan together with
other states might assume responsibility for a broad
spectrum of work to restore Afghan agriculture, in-
frastructure, and industrial and social facilities. This
would substantially increase
the effectiveness of all
international aid to Afghanistan, and especially to
the country’s northern provinces. One reason for
this is that Afghanistan’s main industrial facilities,
which in the 1970s (before military-political desta-
bilization) accounted for over 60 percent of GDP,
used to be concentrated in the northern provinces.
There are also specific opportunities to accelerate
the reconstruction process in the agrarian sector.
A promising approach might be for Afghanistan
and neighboring states to jointly establish bilater-
al and multilateral agricultural holding companies
specializing in animal husbandry (for
instance, the
breeding of Astrakhan sheep) and the cultivation
and processing of cotton, fruits, and vegetables.
This would make it possible to offer Afghan farmers
alternative crops to replace the opium poppy—fur-
thermore, crops that would be in stable demand on
the world market.
