Unleashing the Ideavirus

Unleashing the Ideavirus
157
 www.ideavirus.com
magical tipping process took place. It happened because a smart, focused, powerful ideavirus
started and spread across a concentrated hive of investors and pundits, and this led a tiny
company to have a huge stock market valuation.
The reason I point out this myth is that it’s dangerous. Dangerous because it leads idea
merchants to believe that if they just wait long enough, something will happen and make
them tip—like Yahoo! or the Atkins diet or Nike or the Macarena. I don’t buy it. The odds
are with you if you focus on small hives, filled with pre-chasm sneezers, and then obsess with
crossing the chasm as fast as you possibly can. If you tip, that’s a bonus.

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Unleashing the Ideavirus
158
 www.ideavirus.com
The Compounding Effect
One of the factors that makes the tipping point myth seem more real is the power that comes
from multiple sneezers. While one or two recommendations might make for a smooth
transition, there’s no doubt that as the number of powerful sneezers recommending an idea
to you increases, the chances that you’re going to use it 
dramatically
increases.
This is a genuine side effect of the tipping point. As you are surrounded by hive members
who loudly sneeze about a new idea, the greater your chances of at least trying the idea.
Rather than decreasing returns, as we find in advertising, there are actually increasing returns
from an ideavirus. The more people who have it, the more you want it.
Are there iconoclasts who fight every trend? Of course. They wouldn’t be seen in a hip car or
a hip restaurant or listening to a pop tune. But for most individuals, in most hives, the
compounding effect is quite strong.
Thus, one of the most essential tasks an idea merchant can accomplish is to bring all positive
news to the forefront. The make every hive member 
think
that every other hive member is
already converted to the virus, thus creating the self-fulfilling prophecy that leads to success.
Publishing houses do this when they print lots and lots of copies of a book and ship it out to
stores. If there are tons stacked up by the cash register, many people think that this must be
the hot new book, so they buy it. On the basis of this trial, the book shows up on the
bestseller lists soon after being published. This, of course, leads to more people trying it,
because, after all, it’s on the bestseller list. So, without any genuine “word of mouth,” the
book has established a much larger foundation. It won’t get any bigger unless the idea is
virusworthy, but at least the book got a shot.
On Eric Raymond’s page promoting his essay “The Cathedral and the Bazaar,” he lists and
points to critiques of his work. Why? Because bringing these critiques (both positive and
negative) to the forefront is an excellent way to bring the compounding effect into play.

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