it purports to explain how the world as a whole works, but it is also a
‘Southern’ theory in two senses; uniquely among modern theories of
International Relations it actually
originated in the South, and it is explicitly
oriented towards the problems and interests of the South, designed to solve
those problems and serve those interests. It is because of this ‘Southern-ness’
that structuralism maintained its appeal for so long, in spite of serious intel-
lectual shortcomings.
A key figure in the development of structuralist ideas was the Argentinian
economist Raúl Prebisch, a guiding light of the UN’s Economic Commission
for Latin America (ECLA) in the 1950s,
even though his own position
was rather less radical than that of later structuralists. Prebisch was influ-
enced by Marxist–Leninist ideas on political economy, but rejected the
assumption, common to Marx, Lenin and orthodox communist parties in
Latin America, that the effects of imperialism would be to produce capital-
ist industrialization in the South; in this he was influenced by the revisionist
Marxist political economist Paul Baran,
who argued, in
The Political
Economy of Growth, that monopoly capitalism in the mid-twentieth cen-
tury was no longer performing a progressive role – instead, the industrial-
ization of the rest of the world was being held back in the interest of
maintaining monopoly profits in the centres of capitalism (Baran 1957).
Prebisch’s innovation was to identify the mechanism by which the capitalist
centres held back the periphery. On his account, it was via the pattern of
specialization that so-called ‘free trade’ established in the world economy.
This pattern involved the South in the production
of primary products
(food, raw materials) which are exchanged for the manufactured goods of
the North. Why is this pattern undesirable? Because, Prebisch argues, there
is a long-term, secular trend for the terms of trade to move against primary
products – to put the point non-technically, over time, a given ‘basket’ of a
typical primary product will buy fewer and fewer baskets of manufactured
products. Where
x bushels of grain bought a tractor in 1950, in 2004 it will
take
x
⫹
y bushels to buy a tractor.
This is a fundamental challenge
to liberal economic thinking, which, as
we have seen, assumes that all economies have a comparative advantage in
the production of some product(s) and that for purposes of trade and the
general welfare it does not matter what the product in question is – hence,
in the example given above concerning bananas and manufacturing goods,
Prebisch’s point is that in order to continue to import the
same value of
manufactured goods the Windward Islands will have to continually
increase
the value of banana exports, which will be difficult because of competition
from other
banana-producing countries, and because the demand for
bananas is limited in a way that the demand for manufactured goods is not.
In manufacturing, new products are being developed all the time, new
‘needs’ are being produced via technological innovation and the power of
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