Тузувчи : Файзуллаева Н

Step 2. In the second step, we set Federal spending (outlays) net of Federal interest payments.40 Federal spending broadly includes Federal consumption spending, Federal transfer payments, and other spending items in the Federal Government’s budget.

CBO publishes its projections for most--but not all--of the Global In­sight model’s NIPA federal spending variables. For example, the Federal Government’s budget includes Federal social benefits to the rest of the world and Federal subsidies. CBO publishes its projections of both aggregates. We replace GI’s projections of these variables with CBO’s published NIPA pro­jections. Similarly, CBO publishes its projection of Federal net investment.41 We combine this with CBO’s baseline projections of NIPA defense and non­defense consumption of fixed capital to obtain a NIPA target for Federal gross investment.

However, CBO does not provide baseline projections for all NIPA Federal spending variables. In some instances, we rely on the GI control forecast to obtain needed targets. For example, Federal consumption spending includes both defense and nondefense “other” purchases of goods and services and wages and salaries for personnel. CBO only publishes its projection of the sum of the two (labeled defense and nondefense “consumption”). In the absence of any additional information from CBO, we set “other” Federal purchases of goods and services equal to the difference between CBO’s projections of defense and nondefense “consumption” and GI’s projections of defense and nondefense outlays for personnel

In other instances, we derive needed targets from CBO’s published pro­jections of budget (unified) Federal outlays. Federal transfer payments include both social benefits to persons and grants-in-aid to State and local governments. CBO publishes its NIPA projection of grants-in-aid to State and local govern­ments. However, it publishes only budget projections of Federal spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. To obtain equivalent NIPA targets, we use historical Government social benefits data from CBO and BEA to ad­just CBO’s published projections of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending for administrative costs.42