PART 3
OUTLOOK
AND EMERGING ISSUES
TABLE 17
PROJECTED FISH PRODUCTION, 2030 (live weight equivalent)
Production
Of which aquaculture
2018
2030
Growth of
2030 vs
2018
2018
2030
Growth of
2030 vs
2018
(1 000 tonnes)
(%)
(1 000 tonnes)
(%)
Asia
122 404
145 850
19.2
72 820
96 350
32.3
China
62 207
73 720
18.5
47 559
60 450
27.1
India
12 386
15 610
26.0
7 066
10 040
42.1
Indonesia
12 642
14 940
18.2
5 427
7 710
42.1
Japan
3 774
3 520
–6.7
643
740
15.1
Philippines
2 876
3 220
12.0
826
905
9.6
Republic of Korea
1 905
1 850
–2.9
568
605
6.4
Thailand
2 598
2 790
7.4
891
1 220
36.9
Viet Nam
7 481
9 590
28.2
4 134
6 020
45.6
Africa
12 268
13 820
12.7
2 196
3 249
48.0
Egypt
1 935
2 610
34.9
1 561
2 220
42.2
Nigeria
1 169
1 275
9.0
291
365
25.3
South Africa
566
594
5.0
6
10
61.8
Europe
18 102
19 290
6.6
3 075
3 620
17.7
European Union
1
5 879
6 025
2.5
1 167
1 320
13.1
Norway
3 844
3 960
3.0
1 355
1 620
19.6
Russian Federation
5 308
6 010
13.2
200
312
56.4
North
America
6 536
6 981
6.8
660
838
27.1
Canada
1 019
1 120
9.9
191
255
33.3
United States of America
5 213
5 590
7.2
468
582
24.3
Latin America and Caribbean
17 587
16 730
–4.9
3 140
4 170
32.8
Argentina
839
905
7.9
3
4
24.8
Brazil
1 319
1 490
12.9
605
800
32.2
Chile
3 388
3 950
16.6
1 266
1 650
30.3
Mexico
1 939
2 050
5.7
247
365
47.7
Peru
7 273
5 600
–23.0
104
160
54.4
Oceania
1 617
1 750
8.2
205
290
41.3
Australia
281
360
28.0
97
150
55.0
New Zealand
511
560
9.5
105
135
29.1
World
2
178 529
204 421
14.5
82 095
108 517
32.2
Developed countries
29 233
30 730
5.1
4 603
5 499
19.5
Developing countries
135 096
173 691
28.6
73 330
103 018
40.5
1
Cyprus is included in Asia as well as in the European Union.
2
For 2018, the aggregate includes also 14 263 tonnes for not identified countries, data not included in any other aggregates.
SOURCE: FAO.
| 166 |
THE STATE OF WORLD
FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
FIGURE 52
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF WORLD AQUACULTURE, 1980–2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
PERCENTAGE
SOURCE: FAO.
FIGURE 53
WORLD GLOBAL CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, 1980–2030
Aquaculture for human consumption
Total capture fisheries
Capture fisheries for human consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
MILLION TONNES (LIVE WEIGHT EQUIVALENT)
SOURCE: FAO.
| 167 |
PART 3
OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES
by local policies promoting aquaculture fuelled
by rising local demand from higher economic
growth. However, despite this expected growth,
overall aquaculture production in Africa will
remain limited, at slightly more than 3.2 million
tonnes in 2030, with the bulk of it (2.2 million
tonnes) produced by Egypt.
In terms of species, the majority (62 percent) of
global aquaculture production in 2030 will be
composed of freshwater species, such as carp
and Pangas catfish (including
Pangasius
spp.), as
compared with 60 percent in 2018.
Production of
higher-value species, such as shrimps, salmon
and trout, is also projected to continue to grow.
In general, species that require larger proportions
of fishmeal and fish oil in their diets are expected
to grow more slowly owing to expected higher
prices and reduced availability of fishmeal.
Capture fisheries production is projected to stay
at high levels, reaching about 96 million tonnes
in 2030, with some fluctuations over the next
decade linked to the El Niño phenomenon with
reduced catches in South America, especially
for anchoveta, resulting
in an overall decrease
in world capture fisheries production of about
2 percent in those years.
29
Factors influencing
sustained capture fisheries production include:
(i) increased catches in some fishing areas
where stocks of certain species are recovering
owing to improved resource management;
(ii) growth in catches in waters of the few
countries with underfished resources, where new
fishing opportunities exist or where fisheries
management measures are less restrictive; and
(iii) improved utilization of the harvest, including
reduced onboard discards, waste and losses
as driven by legislation or higher market fish
prices, both for food and non-food products.
The projections also include a 9 percent decrease
29
The projections assume normal weather and production
conditions, with the exception of the impact of the El Niño phenomenon
set for selected Latin American countries to occur more strongly every
five years, based on more recent trends. The years in which it will occur
might not be exact ones, but they provide an indication as to what
could be the overall effects on both capture fisheries production as well
on aquaculture. This climatic phenomenon reduces production of
fishmeal and fish oil obtained from anchoveta and other small pelagic
species in the affected region, with an impact on prices and input costs
for aquaculture.
FIGURE 54
CONTRIBUTION OF AQUACULTURE TO REGIONAL FISH PRODUCTION
China
Asia,
excluding China
Latin America
and the Caribbean
Africa
Europe
Oceania
North America
World
World,
excluding China
2018
PERCENTAGE
2030
0
20
40
60
80
SOURCE: FAO.
»
| 168 |
THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
in capture fisheries in China, owing to the
implementation of the policies that started with
the above-mentioned Thirteenth Five-Year Plan
(2016–2020), and are expected to continue into
the next decade. For capture fisheries, China’s
policies aim to reduce its domestic catches
through controls on licensing, reduction in
the number of fishers and fishing vessels, and
output controls. Other objectives include: the
modernization of gear, vessels and infrastructure;
regular reduction of fuel subsidies; elimination
of
IUU fishing; and restoration of domestic fish
stocks through the use of restocking, artificial
reefs and seasonal closures. However, it should
be noted that the current policies also point to
developing the country’s distant-water fleet,
which might partly offset reductions in its
domestic catches.
The share of capture fisheries production
reduced into fishmeal and fish oil should decline
slightly in the next decade (18 percent by 2030
compared with 19 percent in 2018). However, in
2030, the total amount of fishmeal and fish oil
produced is expected to be higher than in 2018,
by 1 percent and 7 percent, respectively, owing
to an increased amount
of the production being
obtained from fish waste and by-products of the
processing industry. Between 2018 and 2030, the
proportion of total fish oil obtained from fish
waste is projected to increase from 40 percent to
45 percent, while for fishmeal this proportion will
grow from 22 percent to 28 percent (
Figure 55
).
Prices
In nominal terms, prices in the fishery and
aquaculture sector are expected to rise in the
long term up to 2030. A number of factors
explain this tendency. On the demand side, these
include improved income, population growth and
higher meat prices. On the supply side, stable
capture fisheries production, slowing growth in
aquaculture production,
and cost increase for
inputs (feed, energy and oil) are likely to play a
role. In addition, the slowdown in China’s fisheries
and aquaculture production will stimulate
higher prices in China, with repercussions on
world prices. The increase in the average price
of farmed fish (24 percent over the projection
period) will be greater than that of captured fish
(23 percent, when excluding fish for non-food
uses). Prices of farmed fish will also grow owing
to higher fishmeal and fish oil prices, which are
FIGURE 55
WORLD
FISHMEAL PRODUCTION, 1990–2030
From fish by-products
From whole fish
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