objectives.
The policy decisions to accelerate energy transition will need to be
aligned with the development of enabling infrastructure. Infrastructure
planning early on will be of paramount importance because of its
carbon lock-in e
ff
ect due to long life span and inertia. More attention is
needed for emerging infrastructure issues such as smart charging of
EVs, distribution grid reinforcements and the role of shifting demand
and smart grids. Financing for both energy generation capacity and
infrastructure will also be crucial through carefully drafted policies that
create a credible, predictable and transparent investment environment.
There is a need to mobilise public and private sector resources and
develop innovative
fi
nancing models that can mitigate investment risks.
However, the speed of energy transition is not commensurate with
the agreed sustainable development goals. Scenario studies suggest that
especially for renewable energy more e
ff
orts are needed. A six-fold
acceleration is needed of renewables growth, compared to Business-
as
-
Usual. Wind, solar PV, modern bioenergy and solar thermal can con-
tribute the bulk of renewables growth on the supply side. More energy
e
ffi
ciency tempers demand growth and therefore contributes about one
quarter to the overall growth of renewables share in total
fi
nal energy
consumption. At the same time 20
–
44% of the energy intensity im-
provement can be attributed to the growth of renewable energy. These
numbers indicate that important synergies exist between higher energy
e
ffi
ciency and higher shares of renewable energy, both solutions should
therefore be pursued jointly.
Renewable power would account for 58% of total renewables de-
ployment in 2050. Variable renewable power would account for 60% of
total power generation, up from around 10% today. Such high shares of
variable renewable power generation require a paradigm shift in the
power sector. Best practice in leading countries shows that such systems
can be operated successfully, though changes are needed. The systems
fl
exibility that is required can only be mobilized through a systemic
approach that mobilizes all types of innovations. Technology innova-
tion must be combined with new market designs and business models
that build on the new technology characteristics.
In certain end use sectors, new scalable and a
ff
ordable solutions will
be needed. Sector coupling, notably tailored electri
fi
cation of end-use
sectors will play an increasingly important role. The electricity share in
fi
nal energy use will more than double to a level of 40%
–
50%. Due to
the high e
ffi
ciency of electricity use, the share of useful energy is even
higher. Electric vehicles are a prime example of such transition, with
profound e
ff
ects on the way that transportation is organised and all its
developmental consequences. The share of electricity or electricity
derivatives such as hydrogen must grow substantially in the
fi
nal en-
ergy use of buildings, industry and transport. A signi
fi
cant part of
transport and industry challenge is largely ignored in the current in-
ternational debate. Signi
fi
cant uncertainty remains what solutions will
prevail.
The potential of this energy transition is not yet fully appreciated by
many decision makers and analysts. Yet it is critical to the achievement
many of the sustainable development goals and it o
ff
ers a prospect of
just and fair growth, that would result in USD 27 trillion additional
investments by 2050, 1% higher GDP, 0.15% more jobs and environ-
mental bene
fi
ts that dwarf the increased cost. The socioeconomic
bene
fi
ts are substantial and provide a strong policy rationale.
Acknowledgements
This research did not receive any speci
fi
c grant from funding
agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-pro
fi
t sectors.
Annex 1
REmap (Renewable Energy Roadmap) is IRENA's global energy
modelling framework. Modelling is carried out at the level of countries.
The REmap approach involves a techno-economic assessment of the
energy system developments for energy supply and demand by energy
transformation (power and district heat generation) and end-use sectors
(residential and service buildings, industry and transport), and for each
energy carrier in the time period between 2010 and 2050. REmap al-
lows for assessment of the accelerated potential of low-carbon tech-
nologies, and their subsequent e
ff
ects on costs, externalities (human
health and climate change), investments, and the emissions of CO
2
and
air pollutants.
The REmap analyses assume two trajectories of energy system de-
velopment:
•
The Reference Case is based on national energy plans. It represents
the energy use developments based on policies in place or under
consideration. The Reference Case also includes any expected de-
velopments in energy e
ffi
ciency improvement. The availability of
country data for national energy plans varies, so data gaps are
fi
lled
Fig. 6.
Power system innovations.
Source: Based on [
67
].
D. Gielen et al.
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