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83 THREE PERCENT THEORY
Before participating in the police
department’s second homicide seminar in Aulanko in 1993 I read all the Finnish
literature I could find on the subject, apart from detective novels. Government Councillor Jussi Pajuoja from the
Ministry of Justice had observed that two thirds of the approximately 160 annual homicides in Finland were
committed by people that belonged to a group which represented 5% of Finnish men who were unemployed
even during times of economic prosperity when there was plenty of work around. If we remove groups that do
not tend to kill others, e. g. Swedish-speakers (innovation no. 11), Laestadian Lutherans, peaceful mental
patients and pensioners that either belong to the first or second social class or are mentally handicapped or
disabled, we are left with 3% of Finnish men. This group consists of 40,000 men, most of whom are single or
divorced and live alone.
So who are these people? Practically speaking, all of Finland’s homeless people (80% of whom are men) and
prisoners (97% men) belong to this group, along with former reform school students, army rejects, long-term
unemployed people who didn’t work even during the economic boom, degenerate alcoholics and the majority of
drug addicts. A person from a poor and quarrelsome family who suffers from mbd (Minimal Brain Dysfunction),
ADHD (Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder) or difficult dyslexia, or is of limited intelligence, also has a good
chance of ending up in this group.
This small group of people not only commit murders but place a lot of strain on our society by e.g. burdening
the police and judicial authorities as well as social welfare and health care through the trouble they cause and
the illnesses they suffer from.
The Finnish Ministry of the Interior recently analysed the major security threats in Finland, and found that
these come not from computer hackers, bird flu, HIV, Russian criminals or global warming, but poor and lonely
20
–40- yearolds who expect nothing from society (and from whom society expects nothing in return).
These men are serviced by around 20,000 paid workers: special education teachers, social workers, carers
and nurses, doctors, ambulance drivers, policemen, prison guards, porters, cleaners, firemen, clergymen and a
whole army of e.g. voluntary AA men and support people, but nothing seems to help. While older men quieten
down and die off, there are always others growing up to replace them.
What actually happens to this group? According to Professor Tapani Valkonen, we are now seeing the fourth
mortality wave in Finland. First the men died in the war (every sixth participant), then until the mid-1950s it was
TB, and after that came cardiovascular disease (innovation no. 55). Now poor men under 45 are dying but, says
Valkonen,“not by being chopped down by the Grim Reaper but under the mowing machine”. Pekka Karhunen, a
professor of forensic medicine, has also stated that “there are too many young men on the table”. They die of e.g.
fatal wounds, accidents, suicide, intoxication and tobacco and alcohol-related diseases. However, there is one
major difference: the first three trends affected both rich and poor, so there was a general interest in solving the
problem, but now that only poor people are dying it seems that no one really cares about pawns that are no
longer part of the game.
According to the 3% theory, focusing a strong measure of Bismarckian social policy on this residual group
would do a lot to solve the problem. We have numerous examples of miniature societies: when people are
treated well they respond in kind.
Up until 1995 Finland was the only European country in which the number of both homeless people and
prisoners was declining.
If we want to preserve our social harmony we must make considerable improvements to the social status of
this troubling group. In symbolic terms, if rich and poor cannot look each other in the eye, it will be an eye for an
eye.
Even the police estimate that the number of murders could be cut by 35%. Although the number has declined
by one-third since the 1930s, it is still three to five times greater than many other European countries.
Certain things must be done to remedy this situation: first of all we must construct small flats and service
homes to reduce and ultimately eradicate homelessness (innovations nos. 62 and 64); secondly, a special
pension must be granted to the disabled; thirdly, income-related poverty must be eliminated (innovation no. 77);
and fourthly, special recreational and leisure time as well as work-related activities must be intensified, and the
youth workshop network must be expanded.
The costs of these measures are considerably lower than the current cost of the trouble caused by this group.
Ilkka Taipale
– Member of Parliament 1971–1975, 2000–2007
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