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foreknowledge
.
[That is, knowledge of the enemy's dispositions, and what he means to do.]
5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot
be obtained inductively from experience,
[Tu Mu's note is: "[knowledge of the enemy] cannot be gained by reasoning
from other analogous cases."]
nor by any deductive calculation.
[Li Ch’uan says: "Quantities like length, breadth, distance and magnitude, are
susceptible of exact mathematical determination; human actions cannot be so
calculated."]
6. Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained
from other men.
[Mei Yao-ch’en has rather an interesting note: "Knowledge of the spirit-world
is to be obtained by divination; information in natural science may be sought by
inductive reasoning; the laws of the universe can be verified by mathematical
calculation: but the dispositions of an enemy are ascertainable through spies and
spies alone."]
7. Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes: (1) Local
spies; (2) inward spies; (3) converted spies; (4) doomed spies; (5)
surviving spies.
8. When these five kinds of spy are all at work, none can discover
the secret system. This is called "divine manipulation of the threads."
It is the sovereign's most precious faculty.
[Cromwell, one of the greatest and most practical of all cavalry leaders, had
officers styled 'scout masters,' whose business it was to collect all possible
information regarding the enemy, through scouts and spies, etc., and much of his
success in war was traceable to the previous knowledge of the enemy's moves
thus gained." [1] ]
9. Having
local spies
means employing the services of the
inhabitants of a district.
[Tu Mu says: "In the enemy's country, win people over by kind treatment, and
use them as spies."]
10. Having
inward spies
, making use of officials of the enemy.
[Tu Mu enumerates the following classes as likely to do good service in this
respect: "Worthy men who have been degraded from office, criminals who have
undergone punishment; also, favorite concubines who are greedy for gold, men
who are aggrieved at being in subordinate positions, or who have been passed
over in the distribution of posts, others who are anxious that their side should be
defeated in order that they may have a chance of displaying their ability and
talents, fickle turncoats who always want to have a foot in each boat. Officials of
these several kinds," he continues, "should be secretly approached and bound to
one's interests by means of rich presents. In this way you will be able to find out
the state of affairs in the enemy's country, ascertain the plans that are being
formed against you, and moreover disturb the harmony and create a breach
between the sovereign and his ministers." The necessity for extreme caution,
however, in dealing with "inward spies," appears from an historical incident
related by Ho Shih: "Lo Shang, Governor of I-Chou, sent his general Wei Po to
attack the rebel Li Hsiung of Shu in his stronghold at P’i. After each side had
experienced a number of victories and defeats, Li Hsiung had recourse to the
services of a certain P’o-t’ai, a native of Wu-tu. He began to have him whipped
until the blood came, and then sent him off to Lo Shang, whom he was to delude
by offering to cooperate with him from inside the city, and to give a fire signal at
the right moment for making a general assault. Lo Shang, confiding in these
promises, march out all his best troops, and placed Wei Po and others at their
head with orders to attack at P’o-t’ai's bidding. Meanwhile, Li Hsiung's general,
Li Hsiang, had prepared an ambuscade on their line of march; and P’o-t’ai,
having reared long scaling-ladders against the city walls, now lighted the
beacon-fire. Wei Po's men raced up on seeing the signal and began climbing the
ladders as fast as they could, while others were drawn up by ropes lowered from
above. More than a hundred of Lo Shang's soldiers entered the city in this way,
every one of whom was forthwith beheaded. Li Hsiung then charged with all his
forces, both inside and outside the city, and routed the enemy completely." [This
happened in 303 A.D. I do not know where Ho Shih got the story from. It is not
given in the biography of Li Hsiung or that of his father Li T’e,
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