The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

See also Envy (ch. 86); Contrast Effect (ch. 10)

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73
WHY FIRST IMPRESSIONS DECEIVE
Primacy and Recency Effects
Allow me to introduce you to two men, Alan and Ben. Without thinking about it too
long, decide who you prefer. Alan is smart, hard-working, impulsive, critical,
stubborn and jealous. Ben, however, is jealous, stubborn, critical, impulsive,
hard-working and smart. Who would you prefer to get stuck in an elevator with?
Most people choose Alan, even though the descriptions are exactly the same.
Your brain pays more attention to the first adjectives in the lists, causing you to
identify two different personalities. Alan is smart and hard-working. Ben is jealous
and stubborn. The first traits outshine the rest. This is called the 
primacy
effect
.
If it were not for the 
primacy effect
, people would refrain from decking out their
headquarters with luxuriously appointed entrance halls. Your lawyer would feel
happy turning up to meet you in worn-out sneakers rather than beautifully
polished designer Oxfords.
T h e 
primacy effect
triggers practical errors too. Nobel laureate Daniel
Kahneman describes how he used to grade examination papers at the beginning
of his professorship. He did it as most teachers do – in order: student 1 followed
by student 2 and so on. This meant that students who answered the first
questions flawlessly endeared themselves to him, thus affecting how he graded
the remaining parts of their exams. So, Kahneman switched methods and began
to grade the individual questions in batches – all the answers to question one,
then the answers to question two, and so forth. Thus, he cancelled out the
primacy effect
.
Unfortunately, this trick is not always replicable. When recruiting a new
employee, for example, you run the risk of hiring the person who makes the best
first impression. Ideally, you would set up all the candidates in order and let them
answer the same question one after the other.
Suppose you sit on the board of a company. A point of discussion is raised – a
topic on which you have not yet passed judgement. The first opinion you hear will
be crucial to your overall assessment. The same applies to the other participants,
a fact that you can exploit: if you have an opinion, don’t hesitate to air it first. This

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way, you will influence your colleagues more and draw them over to your side. If,
however, you are chairing the committee, always ask members’ opinions in
random order so that no one has an unfair advantage.
T h e 
primacy effect
is not always the culprit; the contrasting 
recency effect
matters as well. The more recent the information, the better we remember it. This
occurs because our short-term memory file drawer, as it were, contains very little
extra space. When a new piece of information gets filed, an older piece of
information is discarded to make room.
When does the 
primacy effect
supersede the 
recency effect
, or vice versa? If
you have to make an immediate decision based on a series of ‘impressions’
(such as characteristics, exam answers etc.), the 
primacy effect
weighs heavier.
But if the series of impressions was formed some time ago, the 
recency effect
dominates. For instance, if you listened to a speech a few weeks ago, you will
remember the final point or punchline more clearly than your first impressions.
In conclusion: first and last impressions dominate, meaning that the content
sandwiched between has only a weak influence. Try to avoid evaluations based
on first impressions. They will deceive you, guaranteed, in one way or another.
Try to assess all aspects impartially. It’s not easy, but there are ways around it.
For example, in interviews, I jot down a score every five minutes and calculate the
average afterward. This way, I make sure that the ‘middle’ counts just as much as
hello and goodbye.