The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

See also Feature-Positive Effect (ch. 95); Confirmation Bias (chs. 7–8); Availability Bias
(ch. 11); Primacy and Recency Effects (ch. 73)

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89
HOT AIR
Strategic Misrepresentation
Suppose you apply for your dream job. You buff your resumé to a shine. In the job
interview, you highlight your achievements and abilities and gloss over weak
points and setbacks. When they ask if you could boost sales by 30% while cutting
costs by 30%, you reply in a calm voice: ‘Consider it done.’ Even though you are
trembling inside and racking your brain about how the hell you are going to pull
that off, you do and say whatever is necessary to get the job. You concentrate on
wowing the interviewers; the details will follow. You know that if you give even
semi-realistic answers, you’ll put yourself out of the race.
Imagine you are a journalist and have a great idea for a book. The issue is on
everyone’s lips. You find a publisher who is willing to pay a nice advance.
However, he needs to know your timeline. He removes his glasses and looks at
you: ‘When can I expect the manuscript? Can you have it ready in six months?’
You gulp. You’ve never written a book in under three years. Your answer:
‘Consider it done.’ Of course you don’t want to lie, but you know that you won’t
get the advance if you tell the truth. Once the contract is signed and the money is
nestling in your bank account, you can always keep the publisher at bay for a
while. You’re a writer; you’re great at making up stories!
The official term for such behaviour is 
strategic misrepresentation
:
 
the more at
stake, 
the 
more 
exaggerated 
your 
assertions 
become. 
Strategic
misrepresentation
does not work everywhere. If your ophthalmologist promises
five times in a row to give you perfect vision, but after each procedure you see
worse than before, you will stop taking him seriously at some point. However,
when unique attempts are involved, 
strategic misrepresentation
is worth a try – in
interviews, for example, as we saw above. A single company isn’t going to hire
you several times. It’s either a yes or no.
Most vulnerable to 
strategic misrepresentation
are mega-projects, where A)
accountability is diffuse (for example, if the government that commissioned the
project is no longer in power), B) many businesses are involved, leading to
mutual finger-pointing, or C) the end date is a few years down the road.

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No one knows more about large-scale projects than Oxford professor Bent
Flyvbjerg. Why are cost and schedule overruns so frequent? Because it is not the
best offer overall that wins; it is whichever one looks best on paper. Flyvbjerg
calls this ‘reverse Darwinism’: whoever produces the most hot air will be
rewarded with the project. However, is 
strategic misrepresentation
simply brazen
deceit? Yes and no. Are women who wear make-up frauds? Are men who lease
Porsches to signal financial prowess liars? Yes and no. Objectively they are, but
the deceit is socially acceptable, so we don’t get worked up about it. The same
counts for 
strategic misrepresentation.
In many cases, 
strategic misrepresentation
is harmless. However, for the things
that matter, such as your health or future employees, you must be on your guard.
So, if you are dealing with a person (a first-rate candidate, an author or an
ophthalmologist), don’t go by what they claim; look at their past performance.
When it comes to projects, consider the timeline, benefits and costs of similar
projects, and grill anyone whose proposals are much more optimistic. Ask an
accountant to pick apart the plans mercilessly. Add a clause into the contract that
stipulates harsh financial penalties for cost and schedule overruns. And, as an
added safety measure, have this money transferred to a secure escrow account.