The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

See also Hindsight Bias (ch. 14); Overconfidence Effect (ch. 15); Not-Invented-Here
Syndrome (ch. 74); Survivorship Bias (ch. 1); Beginner’s Luck (ch. 49); Cognitive
Dissonance (ch. 50); Forer Effect (ch. 64); Introspection Ilusion (ch. 67); Cherry-Picking
(ch. 96)

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46
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR
Hedonic Treadmill
Suppose one day, the phone rings. An excited voice tells you that you have just
scooped the lottery jackpot – $10 million! How would you feel? And, how long
would you feel like that? Another scenario. The phone rings and you learn that
your best friend has passed away. Again, how would you feel, and for how long?
In chapter 40, we examined the miserable accuracy of predictions, for example
in the fields of politics, economics and social events. We concluded that self-
appointed experts are of no more use than a random forecast generator. So,
moving on to a new area: how well can we predict our feelings? Are we experts
on ourselves? Would winning the lottery make us the happiest people alive for
years to come? Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says no. He has studied lottery
winners and discovered that the happiness effect fizzles out after a few months.
So, a little while after you receive the big cheque, you will be as content or as
discontent as you were before. He calls this ‘affective forecasting’; our inability to
correctly predict our own emotions.
A friend, a banking executive, whose enormous income was beginning to burn
a hole in his pocket, decided to build himself a new home away from the city. His
dream materialised into a villa with ten rooms, a swimming pool and an enviable
view of the lake and mountains. For the first few weeks, he beamed with delight.
But soon the cheerfulness disappeared, and six months later he was unhappier
than ever. What happened? As we now know, the happiness effect evaporates
after a few months. The villa was no longer his dream. ‘I come home from work,
open the door and?. . .?nothing. I feel as indifferent about the villa as I did about
my one-room student apartment.’ To make things worse, the poor guy now faced
a one-hour commute twice a day. This may sound tolerable, but studies show that
commuting by car represents a major source of discontent and stress, and people
hardly ever get used to it. In other words, whoever has no innate affinity for
commuting will suffer every day – twice a day. Anyhow, the moral of the story is
that the dream villa had an overall negative effect on my friend’s happiness.
Many others fare no better: People who change or progress in their careers are,

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in terms of happiness, right back where they started after around three months.
The same goes for people who buy the latest Porsche. Science calls this effect
the 
hedonic treadmill
: we work hard, advance and are able to afford more and
nicer things, and yet this doesn’t make us any happier.
So how do negative events affect us – say, a spinal cord injury or the loss of a
friend? Here, we also overestimate the duration and intensity of future emotions.
For example, when a relationship ends it feels like life will never be the same.
The afflicted are completely convinced that they will never again experience joy,
but after three or so months they are back on the dating scene.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we knew exactly how happy a new car, career or
relationship would make us? Well, this is doable in part. Use these scientifically
rubber-stamped pointers to make better, brighter decisions: 1) Avoid negative
things that you cannot grow accustomed to, such as commuting, noise or chronic
stress. 2) Expect only short-term happiness from material things, such as cars,
houses, lottery winnings, bonuses and prizes. 3) Aim for as much free time and
autonomy as possible, since long-lasting positive effects generally come from
what you actively do. Follow your passions even if you must forfeit a portion of
your income for them. Invest in friendships. For most people, professional status
achieves long-lasting happiness, as long as they don’t change peer groups at the
same time. In other words, if you ascend to a CEO role and fraternise only with
other executives, the effect fizzles out.