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CONGRATULATIONS! YOU’VE WON RUSSIAN ROULETTE
Alternative Paths
You arrange to meet with a Russian oligarch in a forest just outside your city. He
arrives shortly after you, carrying a suitcase and a gun. Placing the suitcase on
the hood of his car, he opens it so you can see it is filled to the brim with stacks of
money – $10 million in total. ‘Want to play Russian roulette?’ he asks. ‘Pull the
trigger once, and all this is yours.’ The revolver contains a single bullet; the other
five chambers are empty. You consider your options. $10 million would change
your life. You would never have to work again. You could finally
move from
collecting stamps to collecting sports cars!
You accept the challenge. You put the revolver to your temple and squeeze the
trigger. You hear a faint click and feel adrenaline flood your body. Nothing
happens. The chamber was empty! You have survived.
You take the money,
move to the most beautiful city you know and upset the locals by building a
luxurious villa there.
One of these neighbours, whose home now stands in the shadow of yours, is a
prominent lawyer. He works twelve hours a day, 300 days a year. His rates are
impressive, but not unusual: $500 per hour. Each
year he can put aside half a
million net after taxes and living expenses. From time to time, you wave to him
from your driveway, laughing on the inside: he will have to work for twenty years
to catch up with you.
Suppose that, after twenty years, your hard-working
neighbour has saved up
$10 million. A journalist comes along one day and puts together a piece on the
more affluent residents in the area – complete with photos of the magnificent
buildings and the beautiful second wives that you and your neighbour have
accrued. He comments on the interior design and the exquisite landscaping.
However, the crucial difference between the two
of you remains hidden from
view: the risk that lurks behind each of the $10 million. For this he would need to
recognise the
alternative paths.
But not only journalists are underachievers at this skill. We all are.
A
lternative paths
are all the outcomes that could have happened, but did not.
With the game of Russian roulette, four
alternative paths
would
have led to the
same result (winning the $10 million) and the fifth alternative to your death. A
huge difference. In the case of the lawyer, the possible paths lie much more close
together. In a village, he would have earned perhaps just $200 per hour. In the
heart of New York working for one of the major investment banks, maybe it would
have been $600 per hour. But, unlike you, he risked no
alternative path
that
would have cost him his fortune – or his life.
Alternative paths
are invisible, so we contemplate them very rarely. Those who
speculate on junk bonds, options and credit default swaps, thus making millions,
should never forget that they flirt with many
alternative paths
that lead straight to
ruin. To a rational mind, ten million dollars that comes about through a huge risk
is worth less than the same sum earned by years of drudgery. (An
accountant
might disagree, though.)
Recently, I was at a dinner with an American friend who suggested tossing a
coin to decide who should pay the bill. He lost. The situation was uncomfortable
for me, since he was my guest in Switzerland. ‘Next time I’ll pay, whether here or
in New York,’ I promised. He
thought for a moment and said, ‘Considering the
alternative paths
, you’ve actually already paid for half of this dinner.’
In conclusion: risk is not directly visible. Therefore, always consider what the
alternative paths
are. Success that comes about
through risky dealings is, to a
rational mind, of less worth than success achieved the ‘boring’ way (for example,
with laborious work as a lawyer, a dentist, a ski instructor, a pilot, a hairdresser or
a consultant). Yes, looking at
alternative paths
from the outside is a difficult task.
Looking at them from the inside is an almost impossible task. Your brain will do
everything to convince you that your success is warranted – no matter how risky
your dealings are – and will obscure any thought of paths other than the one you
are on.
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