Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry

Box 3: Regional collaborative efforts arising from the IEA and WBCSD 
Cement 
Technology Roadmap 2009: Carbon Emissions Reductions up to 2050

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3. The vision
Rising population, urbanisation patterns and 
infrastructure development needs are expected to 
increase global cement production, which is set to 
grow by 12-23% above the 2014 level by 2050. The 
total population is expected to grow by 34% by 
2050 compared to 2014. This increase will be fuelled 
by increasing urban population, which will reach 
6.5 billion people in 2050 or about two-thirds of the 
global population (UN DESA, 2015). 
Cement production intensity levels vary widely 
across different regions. Some, such as China
9
and 
the Middle East, have excess cement production 
9. 
Chinese domestic production peaked in 2014, according to 
estimated cement production in 2016.
capacity with cement production intensities well 
above global levels (1 818 kilogrammes (kg) of 
cement produced per capita in China and 827 kg of 
cement produced per capita in the Middle East in 
2014 compared to 575 kg of cement produced per 
capita globally). Other countries, such as India, are 
set to increase their domestic cement production 
to fulfil their infrastructure development needs, 
aligning with global levels by 2050. The aggregated 
global average of cement demand per capita is 
expected to level out at around 485 kg cement per 
capita over the same period (Figure 3).
Overall cement production in Asia Pacific remains 
stable over the analysed horizon. Expected cement 
production growth in India (triple its current 
production level by 2050) and Other Asia Pacific 
countries (double current production levels by 
2050) represents more than 90% of the envisioned 
decrease in cement production in China over the 
same period. Chinese cement production is set to 
lose 27% of the global cement production share 
in the process of adjusting national production 
capacity to domestic cement needs by 2050. The 
rest of the additional foreseen global cement 
production increase is in Africa (more than triple 
its current cement production level by 2050) 
and America (almost double its current cement 
production level by 2050), to support domestic 
growing demand (Figure 4).