Scientific Collection «InterConf», (39): with the Proceedings of the 8th International Scientific and Practical Conference «Science and Practice: Implementation to Modern Society» (December 26-28, 2020) at Manchester, Great Britain

 
 

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SCIENTIFIC COLLECTION «INTERCONF» | № 3(39)
174 
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
 
UDC 519.86 
Huseynova Sara Mubariz 
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of “Mathematical Economy” department
Baku State University, Republic of Azerbaijan 
 
THE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES OF COINTEGRATION RELATIONS 
BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN’S GDP AND THE BALANCES OF THE TRADE 
RELATIONS OF RUSSIA AND BELARUS 
 
Abstract. An econometric analysis of the dependence of Azerbaijan’s GDP from the 
balance of the Russian Federation and the balance of Belarus was conducted 
according to the 26 year’s statistical 
indicators. Relevant statistical methods were applied to check the model’s 
identification and the 
significance for each parameter and determine the adequacy. The result demonstrated 
that the assessments achieved through these models were adequate to the actual data 
by building cointegration models to get long-term relations ensuring the return of 
short-term tendencies from the balance position to that position. 
Keywords: Multiply regression analyses, cointegration,GDP, balance of trade. 
 
Introduction. In the process of long-term joint development within the 
framework of the united public economy complex of post-Soviet countries, the 
integration relations of micro and macro indicators between the countries have 
developed. Under the influence of the united center, relations between the republics 
have been enhanced and the economic indicators between the countries have been 
mutually integrated into each other.  
The international economic integration under the modern conditions is a rational, 
normal result of the transnationalization of macroeconomic processes. Comprehensive 

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 SCIENCE AND PRACTICE: IMPLEMENTATION TO MODERN SOCIETY
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studies of the global economy’s tendencies and Azerbaijan’s trade relations, making of 
justified forecasts by considering regional characteristics and the geographical 
positions of countries plays a significant role in the determination of the development 
strategy of foreign trade.
The major part of importation and exportation transactions of Azerbaijan with the 
post-Soviet countries falls to Russian Federation’ share. The Republics of Kazakhstan, 
Belarus and Ukraine rank in the second and third places respectively [1]. The direction 
of economic relations of the post-Soviet states from the near abroad to far foreign 
countries under the conditions of increasing dependence from the global market have 
led to significant structural changes in the structure of the import-export transactions 
and the manufacturing sphere in the CIS countries.
The current key tendencies in the global economy are the integration of national 
economies, international globalization, and increasing of labor resources and free 
capital between countries. The influence of this process may lead to both positive and 
negative results. In order to draft an economic policy with the nature of foreign 
integration, the dynamics of macroeconomic development indicators of the national 
economies of the abovementioned countries should be analyzed, the economic growth 
safety should be assessed potentially, and the long-term trends of the integration 
process should be described in comparison to statistic data. In order to achieve an 
effective integration, forecasting by building and analyzing of the co-integration 
relations between the GDPs and other inclusive economic growth parameters of these 
countries is a very hot topic.
It is one of the key issues set to improve the social-economic spheres in the post-
Soviet countries through new innovative methods in the studies of the projects 
implemented in the priority directions in the spheres ensuring the sustainable economic 
development of the countries in the future.