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National Economic Trends
Russian Manufacturing Growth Slows to ‘Near Stagnation’ in May
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/russian-manufacturing-growth-slows-to-near-stagnation-in-may.html
By Scott Rose - Jun 1, 2011 6:20 AM GMT+0200
Russian manufacturing growth slowed for a second month in May to just above stagnation as domestic demand declined.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.7, from 52.1 in April, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report today, citing data compiled by Markit Economics, a financial information services company. The survey-based index indicates a contraction when below 50 and growth with a figure above 50.
“Russian manufacturing has almost lost growth momentum,” Alexander Morozov, HSBC’s chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, said in the report. “This must reflect a decline in domestic demand, which has led to stocks accumulation for the first time since the 2008 economic crisis.”
The data suggest “negative surprises” for May industrial production data, Morozov said, adding to concerns that the economy’s recovery has been uneven. Bank Rossii this week signaled it would stop raising interest rates because risks to the economy, including slowing industrial output, were now even with dangers from inflation.
The index has fallen 4.9 percentage points from March’s 55- month high of 55.6 percent, the largest constant drop since late 2008, the report said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Rose in Moscow at rrose10@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net
10:24 01/06/2011ALL NEWS
Minimum monthly wage in Russia goes up. |
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/155117.html
1/6 Tass 14
MOSCOW, June 1 (Itar-Tass) — A minimum monthly wage in Russia has been brought up to 4,611 roubles from June 1, the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported on Wednesday.
The latest adjustment of the minimum monthly wage was in January 1, 2009 and until today it was 4,330 roubles, the ministry said.
Minimum wage law is the body of law, which prohibits employers from hiring employees or workers for less than a given hourly, daily or monthly minimum wage.
Under the Russian Labour Code the minimum wage is not to be less than the living wage.
Russia expects 40-percent surge in grain output in 2011
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90853/7397698.html
14:11, June 01, 2011
Russia's grain output may hit 85 million tons this year, up nearly 40 percent from 2010 and allowing it to lift the ban on export imposed last year, First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said on Tuesday.
"We've calculated that the Russian may get a harvest of about 85 million tons of grain this year," Zubkov told President Dmitry Medvedev in a meeting here, adding that "we may have a grain carry- over of 18 million tons by July 1, 2012."
"The export of grain may be at around 15 million tons," Zubkov said.
A severe drought reduced Russia's grain output to 60.9 million tons in 2010, down 37 percent from a year ago.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced Saturday that Russia will lift from July 1 its grain export ban imposed last year in the wake of the drought, saying this is one of the measures to tap the potential of Russia's agricultural producers.
In January, Zubkov predicted that Russia's 2011 harvest may reach 80-85 million tons.
Source: Xinhua
CBR expects $30-35bn capital outflow for 2011
http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text15683
Alfa Bank
June 1, 2011
The CBR now expects a $30-35bn capital outflow in 2011, a sharp downgrade from the previous expectation of a surplus of up to $15bn, CBR Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukaev announced yesterday. The new figure is very close to the 4M11 capital outflow of $30bn and suggests the bank does not expect any capital inflow in 2H11.
Given our expectation of a $15bn capital outflow for 2Q11, the CBR's $30-35bn guidance for the full year is very close to our forecast of a $36bn outflow in 1H11. While until recently, we were looking for an improvement in the capital account in 2H11 and expected a $5bn surplus for this year, the fact that the regulator does not see a possibility for improvement is bad news, making our outlook look overly optimistic.
At the same time, the CBR's forecast of a flat capital account in 2H11 may turn out to be too pessimistic, as oil prices should also be taken into account: the recent volatility on commodity markets has triggered a larger-than-expected capital outflow and fears of ruble depreciation, which have reduced companies' appetite for international borrowing. Should commodities regain strength, we would not rule out the possibility of a better capital account. However, under our $105/bbl assumption, such an improvement does not seem realistic, and we will have to move our annual capital account forecast to a more appropriate negative level, posing risk to our year-end exchange rate forecast of RUB29/$.
Natalia Orlova
Corporate loans up 3.9%, retail loans grew 5.5% in 4M11
http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text15683
Alfa Bank
June 1, 2011
According to the latest banking statistics released by the CBR, corporate loans increased by 1.7% m/m in April, while retail lending posted stronger growth of 2.8% m/m. As expected, retail deposits rose a weak 4.2% YTD in 4M11 versus the 7.4% observed in 4M10.
The corporate loan growth figure is fully in line with our expectation. The 3.9% YTD increase corresponds with our annual growth forecast of 14% y/y. We are also not surprised by the significant deceleration in retail deposit growth, which is under pressure from higher inflation and slower income growth compared with last year. Retail deposits rose by 2.1% in April versus 1.0% in March, though this most likely reflects the 10% increase in pensions.
In contrast, retail lending was a pleasant surprise, rising 5.5% YTD, suggesting our forecast of 12% growth for 2011 is very likely to be exceeded. This figure, unlike the controversial disposable income statistic, fully supports the strong consumption growth we have observed and is therefore a good sign for GDP.
Natalia Orlova
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