Russia 110201 Basic Political Developments



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UPDATE 1-Russia's LUKOIL to increase stake in Italy refiner


http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE70U2JR20110131
Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:55pm GMT

* Says to increase stake to 60 pct in Sicily based ISAB

* Will pay Italian JV partner ERG 205 mln euros

(Adds detail)

MOSCOW, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Russian oil company LUKOIL (LKOH.MM) will increase its stake in Italian oil refinery ISAB in a move that will boost its overall refining capacity by more than 11 percent to 79.5 million tonnes a year.

The company, Russia's second biggest oil producer, said in a statement it would pay Italian joint venture partner ERG (ERG.MI) 205 million euros ($281.2 million) for the 11 percent stake -- increasing its share in ISAB to 60 percent.

It said in a statement the sale by ERG was an option included in the original joint venture agreement, signed in 2008.

(Reporting by John Bowker; Editing by Alissa de Carbonnel)


Finland looks to Yamal


http://www.barentsobserver.com/finland-looks-to-yamal.4879086-116321.html
2011-01-31

Finnish oil and gas companies intend to get a stake in the Yamal LNG project.

Representatives of Finnish oil and gas companies in a meeting with the Russian Ministry of Energy last week confirmed their interest in the planned LNG project in Russia’s far northern Yamal Peninsula.

According to the Russian ministry, the Finnish business representatives handed over a proposal on Finnish engagement in the project.

The companies were represented at the seventh session of the Russian-Finnish Inter-Governmental Commission on Economic Cooperation taking place in Moscow last week, a press release from the ministry informs. The session was attended by both ministry representatives and the oil industry.

The Yamal LNG project is to be based on the resources of the South Tambey field, a project owned by Russia’s biggest privately owned gas company NOVATEK. Also Gazprom has a stake in the LNG project.

As reported by BarentsObserver, Finnish industry with increasing interest looks towards Arctic oil and gas projects, among them the Shtokman project in the Barents Sea. Finland has a number of technologically advanced engineering companies and a world-leading shipbuilding industry.

Text: Atle Staalesen



BP dividend joy to be marred by TNK-BP spat


http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/02/01/bp-idINLDE70U2C020110201
5:31am IST

* High court in London to rule on halting Rosneft deal talks

* BP seen announcing 7 cents/share Q4 dividend

* Underlying Q4 profits seen up 16 percent

* Q4 oil and gas production seen down 9.4 pct YoY

By Tom Bergin

LONDON, Feb. 1 (Reuters) - BP's (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) expected return to paying dividends on Tuesday could be overshadowed by a court case taken by its partners in Russian joint venture TNK-BP seeking to halt BP's planned tie-up with Rosneft (ROSN.MM: Quote, Profile, Research).

BP is due to unveil fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Tuesday, and announce a fourth-quarter dividend of 7 cents/share, after cutting the payout at the height of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill last summer.

However, hours after BP unveils its results, a High Court judge in London will rule on an application by AAR, the holding vehicle of the Russian billionaires who own half of TNK-BP [TNKBP.UL], to halt a planned Arctic exploration partnership between BP and Rosneft.

BP and state-controlled Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, announced their deal, which involves each taking a shareholding in the other, earlier this month.

However, BP's TNK-BP partners say the Rosneft venture breaches an agreement BP gave to use TNK-BP as its primary vehicle for Russian investment.

BP agrees it needs AAR's approval to enter the deal with Rosneft but said this was not needed yet as the Arctic joint venture had not yet been formed.

It was unclear whether the judge could block even discussions about the venture.

AAR also plans to try and force BP's hand on the issue, by trying to block a planned $1.8 dividend payout by TNK-BP. [ID:nLDE70U19J]

TNK-BP pays BP around $1.5-2 billion per year in dividends and a long-term suspension of the payout could limit BP's ability to grow its own dividend, which at 7 cents per share would be only half the pre-oil spill level.

EARNINGS RECOVER

BP's fourth-quarter earnings are expected to show a return to growth after two quarters when oil spill costs weighed.

A Reuters poll of nine analysts gave an average forecast of $5.09 billion for BP's clean Replacement Cost (RC) net income, up 16 percent on the final quarter of 2009, stripping out one-off or non-cash items.

A 9.4 percent drop in production, due to the sale of fields to pay for the spill and disruptions to BP's remaining producing assets, is expected to be more than made up for by a $12/barrel rise in crude prices, compared with the last quarter of 2009.

Texas-based Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest publicly traded oil company by market value, reported a 53 percent rise in fourth-quarter profit to $9.25 billion

The U.S.'s second-largest oil company, Chevron (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported a 71 percent rise in fourth-quarter profit to $5.3 billion.

RC net income strips out gains or losses related to changes in the value of oil inventories and as such is comparable with U.S. net income.

(Editing by David Cowell)



Vedomosti: Editorial: Seizing an opportunity


http://rt.com/politics/press/vedomosti/editorial-seizing-opportunity/en/

Published: 1 February, 2011, 04:44


Edited: 1 February, 2011, 04:48

Yesterday, Russian shareholders of TNK-BP – the Alfa Group Consortium, Access, and Renova (AAR) – had, without much ado, left their British partner without any dividends for the IV quarter of 2010. BP, which is in need of funds, will not be getting $1.8 billion.  

Several days earlier, the AAR had filed a lawsuit at the arbitrary court in London, while trying to block a deal between BP and Rosneft in the amount of nearly $8 billion (the companies agreed to swap shares and create a joint venture to work in the Russian Arctic). AAR believes that BP has violated the terms of the shareholders’ agreement by entering into an alliance with another Russian company without getting the consent of its own joint venture – TNK-BP.

Russian shareholders of the joint venture were given the nickname “tank officers” not only due to the abbreviation TNK, but also because of their aggressive temper: for example, in 2008, they had matter-of-factly ousted former BP CEO, Robert Dudley, from Russia. He was forced to leave with other British coworkers due to “a violation of the visa regulations and labor laws”.   

But despite having a reputation of being tough, it’s hard to say that the AAR owners – Mikhail Friedman, Viktor Vekselberg, and Leonard Blavatnik – are short-sighted. It’s highly unlikely that they are seriously considering blocking the deal, which has been prepared and approved by Vladimir Putin and Igor Sechin. This is evidenced by the phlegmatic reaction of Rosneft, which was clearly not frightened by the demarche of “the tank officers”, as well as Sechin’s sincere bewilderment: “I heard there might be some misunderstanding, but it cannot be concerning Rosneft”.

So, it turns out that the goal of the scandal is not to undermine Rosneft’s plans, but rather to frighten BP, while getting certain concessions from the British partners. What could the Russian TNK-BP shareholders want in exchange for loyalty?

First, TNK-BP could ask BP to sell a few more assets abroad. Last summer, TNK-BP, which has long craved to enter foreign markets, had already bought BP’s assets in Venezuela and Vietnam, worth $1.8 billion. Now, say analysts, TNK-BP may be interested in buying an oil refinery in Europe, a chain of fuel stations in Poland, and perhaps even oil fields in the North Sea. While using the fact that BP is so interested in entering into an alliance with Rosneft to their advantage, “the tank officers” could negotiate a substantial discount.     

Secondly, TNK-BP’s approval could be exchanged for a favorable, for Russia, settlement of the question regarding the future of the Kovykta field (reserves total 2 trillion cubic meters of gas). Since the late 1990s, TNK-BP has had the controlling stake in Rusia Petroleum, the Kovykta operator. It was expected that a pipeline would be laid from the field to China or Korea, but Gazprom decide not to build a pipeline for someone else’s field. Kovykta’s annual production did not exceed 40 million cubic meters, while under Russia’s licensing conditions, already by 2006 it was supposed to produce 9 billion cubic meters. TNK-BP and its “subsidiary” asked to revise the agreement, but officials refused. In June 2010, the company was forced to file for bankruptcy. In February-March it will become clear as to who will assume ownership of the field. Kovykta is claimed by Gazprom and Rosneft. Perhaps, for now, the Russian and British shareholders have a different idea about the future buyers.         

Thirdly, while seizing the opportunity, Russian shareholders could try to intensify operational control over TNK-BP, enter into joint venture with Rosneft or, conversely, convince BP to buy out their share in TNK-BP.

Two weeks ago, WikiLeaks reports appeared in which a US diplomat is citing David Peattie, who represents BP’s interests in TNK-BP. According to Peattie, by the end of 2011 the Russian government will seize ownership of TNK-BP and divide it: oil assets will go to Rosneft, and gas – to Gazprom. This could not have but angered the AAR consortium – and perhaps forced it to consider selling its shares.




Gazprom




RUSSIA LINK  

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=297452

By MANDEEP SINGH ,  Posted on » Tuesday, February 01, 2011




MANAMA: Bahrain could soon become the regional hub for Russian energy giant Gazprom, it was revealed yesterday.

Talks with the company are at an advanced stage and a deal could be finalised in the next few months, said Oil and Gas Affairs Minister and National Oil and Gas Authority (Noga) chairman Dr Abdulhussain Mirza.

"The deal also covers supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Bahrain," Dr Mirza said.

"The hub could be used to supply gas to neighbouring GCC countries or even as far away as India and Pakistan," he said.

He said Gazprom could be looking to tap South Asian markets by sending supplies through Bahrain. A tender to build a $800 million (BD302m) LNG terminal near the Khalifa bin Salman Port is expected to be awarded in the near future.

Gazprom Neft publishes offer for purchase of NIS shares


http://www.emg.rs/en/news/serbia/145907.html

01. February 2011. | 08:27

Source: Tanjug

The Russian company Gazprom Neft published in the press on Monday its offer for the purchase of 19.08 percent of shares of the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) from small shareholders, at the price of EUR 4.8 per share.

The Russian company Gazprom Neft published in the press on Monday its offer for the purchase of 19.08 percent of shares of the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) from small shareholders, at the price of EUR 4.8 per share.

The citizens will be able to sell NIS shares for EUR 4.8 per share, that is at least RSD 506.48, and the offer will stand for the next 45 days.

The citizens are not obliged to sell the shares if they do not want to, and they are able to trade in them at the Belgrade Stock Exchange.

Based on the sale contract, the Russian company Gazpromneft, which owns 51 percent of NIS shares, was obliged to submit by February 2011 the offer for the purchase of shares from small shareholders, at a price lower than the one paid to the state for the purchase of the majority share.

By the Serbia-Russia international agreement in the area of oil and gas economy and the contract concluded on December 24, 2008, Gazprom Neft bought 51 percent of NIS shares for EUR 400 million, with the obligation to invest about EUR 550 million in the modernization of refineries by 2012.

In accordance with the Law on the Right of Citizens to Gratis Shares, the Serbian citizens obtained 19.08 percent of shares, 4.34 percent of which were given to NIS's current and former employees, whereas about 29.9 percent remained in possession of the Republic of Serbia.

Serbia: Gazprom delivering?


http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/01/31/serbia-gazprom-delivers/
January 31, 2011 5:13 pm by Neil MacDonald

Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled energy combine, has always denied political motives behind its fast-growing Balkan business expansion.

An offer by its oil division, Gazprom Neft, to buy up 19 per cent more of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) for EUR 153.6m (US$ 209.2m) will hardly persuade Russo-phobes that it is a purely commercial enterprise. But, at least, NIS’s new majority owner appears serious about following through on investment pledges.

The stake in question consists of 32 million shares, divided among ex-employees and roughly 4.8 million eligible citizens.

Gazprom Neft promised to bid for those shares two years ago, when it bought 51 per cent of the Serbian oil monopoly for the bargain price of EUR 400m. The Serbian state still holds nearly 30 per cent.

NIS’s initial privatisation took place under a sweeping Russian-Serbian energy pact, which made the largest ex-Yugoslav republic an important link in Gazprom’s planned South Stream pipeline for natural gas to the European Union

The energy partnership coincided with political overtures, as Moscow backed Belgrade in the dispute over Kosovo.

Within Serbia, the NIS deal was one of the last points of consensus between nationalist-leaning parties and the growing pro-EU faction led by Serbia’s president, Boris Tadic. Still, Mladjan Dinkic, a key pro-EU ally and economic overseer in successive ruling coalitions, refused to endorse the deal, citing far higher valuations for NIS by western consultants.

Austria’s OMV and other EU-based oil companies had expressed interest in buying NIS’s two aged yet strategically-located refineries. But, the government ducked out of a long-promised competitive tender and sold NIS at the price the Russians demanded.

For the buyer, the business logic was clear, even if the Kosovo dispute played a role on the Serbian side, an advisor to Gazprom said.

A former economic official in Belgrade, Milan Parivodic, said the price tag would matter less than the quality of Russian-led management.

“NIS could become either the largest company in this part of the world, or the skeleton of a former giant,” he told the FT at the time (in unpublished comments). “I hope we get really competitive leadership capable of turning NIS from a monopoly type company to a market leader… with investment to make the refineries competitive, environmentally acceptable, and able to produce the best derivatives in the EU market; [and] investment to make the retail network as good as or even better than OMV and Hellenic.”

In other words, if Gazprom Neft met its obligations, the NIS sale would be “a good deal”, Parivodic said.

Similar arguments could be made about a Russian-owned refinery in neighbouring Bosnia, sold by ethnic Serb authorities just before the global downturn. Rising fuel production has helped the separatist-minded Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) avoid the degree of financial troubles seen in the rest of the country.

NIS says it will invest US$ 740m in upgrading Serbia’s refineries this year.

Naturally, the company has tried to make the best of its temporary monopoly. Pro-western reformers introduced protective barriers in order to help NIS recover after bombing by Nato in 1999.



Restrictions on gasoline, diesel and heating oil expired a month ago, but the government has kept duties lower for domestic fuel products. In practice, NIS will continue to dominate the market easily until nearby rivals can raise their refining capacity.

NIS also has a smattering of investments abroad, including oil field operations in Angola. This month, the firm won a USD 33m contract to develop five wells in Turkmenistan. NIS also hopes for concessions in Romania, Iraq and several ex-Soviet republics, said Petar Skundric, Serbia’s energy minister.
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