Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
102 
Volume of Trade Exchange 
The role played by energy prices in 
determining the level of exports was 
previously presented, but non-energy prices 
also play a pivotal role in determining the 
level of Qatari imports. Figure (2-51) shows 
the relationship between prices (other than 
energy) and the value and size of Qatari 
imports, and it can be seen from the figure 
that there is a quasi-inverse relationship – 
that is, in general the lower the price, the 
greater the quantity of imports. However, this 
is not necessarily true at all times, because 
the quantity of imports is subject to the 
requirements of development, whether 
consumer, capital, or intermediate goods. For 
example, when the State of Qatar witnessed 
a development renaissance during the period 
(2014-2015), the value and quantity of 
imports rose. Moreover, demand for imports 
needs time to adapt, for example as 
happened globally during 2020 and the first 
three quarter of 2021. 
For the change in imports as quantities, the 
non-energy index of the World Bank was 
used to calculate the real value of imports; 
after removing the effect of prices on the 
nominal value of imports; it was found that 
the effect of prices on the volume of imports 
was limited.
Regarding the trade balance for goods, which 
represents the difference between the value 
of merchandise exports at Free on Board 
(FOB) points and the total value of 
merchandise imports after excluding Cost, 
Insurance, and Freight CIF), it continued to 
achieve surpluses from 2014 until the first 
three quarter of 2021. The reason is that the 
average value of imports as a percentage of 
GDP (17.9%) is lower than the average 
percentage of exports (44.7%) during the 
same period. However, energy prices play a 
crucial role in determining the level of value 
of exports and thus determining the level of 
surpluses. It is evident from Figure (2-52) that 
there is a direct relationship between the rate 
of change of exports and the level of 
surpluses, because the value of exports 
fluctuated with an average of negative 10%, 
oscillating between a maximum of 24.9% and 
a minimum of negative 39.2%.
In contrast, imports experienced rises and 
falls, with an average of negative 0.2%, a 
maximum of 13.3%, and a minimum of 
negative 11.5%, which reflects the impact of 
a number of variables, most notably: the