Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
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MANAGING FORECAST DATA
SECTION REVIEW AND DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
Section Objective:
Explain how an FOM can use PMS data relating to transient
and group guests to make room demand forecasts.
Section Summary:
FOMs must use predictive data, techniques, and strategies to
forecast demand for future room sales to transient and group guests. When fore-
casting room demand for transient guests, FOMs can examine trend lines sug-
gested by internally generated data. They can also use information available from Smith
Travel Research (STR) and TravelCLICK. STR tracks information from more than
23,000 hotels, which represents more than 20.8 million rooms. STR uses its database
to provide a participating hotel with statistics applicable to its local area and its com-
petitive set. These data allow FOMs to compare their sales performance with that of
other properties, and the data provide useful input to room forecasting and price-
setting decisions. TravelCLICK reports the advertised selling prices listed on nearly
100 individual and hotel company-operated Web sites on the GDS.
Reservation patterns of transient travelers must be considered separately
from group patterns. The best predictive sources of room demand for groups are
group history and group booking pace. Cutoff dates for guestroom blocks are also
critical to ensure that rooms that will not be used are placed back into the hotel’s
rooms inventory.