Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
FIGURE 8
Transient guest occupancy percentage analysis for the Altoona Hotel.
Month
Last year
This year
Difference
January
51.5
53.7
2.2
February
53.8
55.1
1.3
March
60.2
63.3
3.1
April
62.4
65.1
2.7
May
59.7
62.3
2.6
June 60.4
62.9
2.5
July
62.5
?
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use its charting capacity to compute trend-line projections. (See the “Add Trendline”
feature under the “Chart” option on the toolbar in most versions of Excel.)
In the past, few FOMs had the mathematical and statistical background required
to create sound data forecasts based on trends. Today’s FOMs can easily do so.
Effective FOMs select the right internal data for analysis; then they use their own
skills and experience to interpret (project) future values for that data.
External Data
The events of September 11, 2001, clearly demonstrated that hotels are affected by
external as well as internal factors. FOMs must understand how local, national, and
international events, along with the economy and national and regional travel trends,
are likely to affect their business.
Several sources compile and publish data trends for the hotel industry. In years
past, hotel accounting firms such as Leventhal and Horwath (L&H) and Arthur
Andersen compiled annual trend data primarily from their own clients and then pub-
lished the data. These firms no longer exist but accounting firms such as Price
Waterhouse and hospitality consulting firms such as Yesawich, Pepperdine, Brown &
Russell (YPB&R) compile trend data. The data are distributed at no cost, reported
in the hospitality trade press, or sold to hoteliers who want the information.
Unfortunately, data from these and related sources are usually of little predictive value
to FOMs, because the data are not specific enough to assist in forecasting sales for
their properties. For example, it is not very helpful in predicting future revenue, for
an FOM to learn that national hotel sales increased 5 percent, but his or her state
experienced a 5 percent overall decline in occupancy.