Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Table 2-1
: Qatar’s Macroeconomic Indicators 2015 –
 2021 
Actual 
 
Ave.
2017 - 2019 
Preliminary
 
2015 
2016 
2017 2018 
2019 
2020 
Up-To-Q3 
-2021 
Real GDP (2018=100) (rate of change %) 
4.8
3.1
-1.5
1.2
0.7
0.1
3.6-
1.45 
 
Real Hydrocarbon GVA (%) 
-0.8
-0.8
-2.3
-0.3
-1.7
-1.4
2.0-
0.8-
Real Non-Hydrocarbon GVA (%)* 
9.1
5.9
-1
2.2
2.2
1.1
4.5-
2.9 
Nominal GDP (rate of change %) 
-21.6
-6.2
6.2
13.8
-3.8
5.4
18.1-
23.0 
 
Nominal Hydrocarbon GVA (%) 
-43.9
-25.8
21.6
30.5
-11.9
13.4
33.6-
56.2 
Nominal Non-Hydrocarbon GVA (%) 
3.1
5.6
-0.3
5.2
1.4
2.1
9.5-
9.4 
Consumer price inflation (%) (Nov. 2021) 
1.7
2.3
0.3
0.1
-0.9
-0.2
2.6-
2.0 
Producer price inflation (%) (Oct. 2021) 
-22.8
19.8
25.9
-9.5
12.1
28.7-
59.4 
Fiscal balance (% of nominal GDP)
2.6
-6.5
-4.7
2.8
1.6
-0.1
1.5-
1.0 
Current account surplus (% of nominal GDP)
8.5
-5.4
4
9.1
2.4
5.2
2.5-
11.7 
Weighted Crude oil export Price ($/barrel)
49.3
42.2
53.4
65
60.8
59.7
48.3 
64.2 
Weighted LNG Prices ($/British thermal unit)
9.7
6.3
6.6
8.5
8.7
7.9
6.5 
10.1 
Source: PSA, QCB, & MOF * include FISM and duty,
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Part 2 - Economic Performance 2017 - 2020 
 
49 
minimum of negative 3.8%. Most of the 
growth came from oil-sector activities that 
achieved an average growth of 13.4 %, while 
non-oil activities achieved a much lower 
average growth of about 2.07%, as a result of 
the increase in the average prices of crude oil 
on international markets.
As for 2020, preliminary data showed that 
nominal GDP declined by negative 18%, due 
to the sharp downturn in oil-sector activities 
by negative 33.6%, coincident with a 
significant drop in oil and gas prices. This 
was compounded by the decline in non-oil 
activities by a negative 9.5% as a result of the 
ripple effect across the economy of Covid-19 
containment measures. 
In reference to the performance of real GDP 
(at constant prices) during the first three 
quarters of 2021, it amounted to about 
1.45%. Most of the growth came from non-oil 
activities, which achieved an average growth 
of 2.9%, while oil activities declined by 
negative 0.8%, noting that the Q2 and Q3 of 
2021 witnessed a remarkable positive growth 
in a number of activities compared to what 
was achieved in Q1.
As for the performance of nominal GDP (at 
current prices) during the first half of 2021, it 
amounted to about 23%. Most of the growth 
came from oil-sector activities, the most 
important of which are the manufacturing, 
transport, and wholesale and retail trade, 
which achieved an average growth of 56.2% 
as a result of the increase in the average 
crude oil prices in international markets. Non-
oil activities grew by 9.4% during the same 
period. 
Regarding the rate of change of the 
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
25
during the 
period (2017-2019), it amounted to about 
25
Note the base year change, from 2013 to 2018
negative 0.2%, with a maximum of 0.3%, and 
a minimum of negative 0.9%, as a result of 
the continued decline in the cost of housing 
rents, arts and entertainment venue entry, 
and communications costs. This is despite 
the increased costs of transportation, 
education, health, furniture, and clothing. 
The CPI subsequently witnessed a greater 
decline in 2020 by an order of magnitude, 
ending the year at negative 2.6% as a result 
of the decrease in demand for transportation, 
arts and entertainment, restaurants, hotels, 
furniture and clothing, all of which were the 
result of the precautionary administrative 
measures to confront the social distancing 
requirements following the outbreak of Covid-
19, together with the economic and financial 
decisions to reduce the pandemic’s 
economic implications, in conjunction with a 
significant decline in prices and the global 
demand for oil and gas products during the 
same year.
As in the economies of many other countries, 
consumer price inflation rates in Qatar have 
undergone significant increases during the 
past eleven months, rising from an average 
of negative 2.6% at the end of 2020 to an 
average of positive 1.97% at the end of 
November 2021, which indicates that price 
recovery is higher than in 2020, which serves 
to allay any concern that a deflationary spiral 
will set in. This indicates that inflation in 
Qatar is relatively affected, as discussed 
previously, by developments in global 
commodity prices, whether due to the 
recovery of global demand or the disruption 
of supply chains. 
As for the producer price index in Qatar, it is 
almost equal to the international energy price 
index, and therefore it is affected by a number of 
factors, the most important of which are 
fluctuations of: (1) the level of supply of global 

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