Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023
 
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activities related to hosting the 2022 FIFA 
World Cup.
Then, it recedes slightly in 2023, 
between 1.3% and 2.9%. 
Based on the assumption that the 
performance level of the value-added sector 
of the hydrocarbons sector during the period 
2021-2023 will decrease in a range between 
negative 0.7% and negative 0.2% in 2021 for 
the three scenarios, then it will stabilize at 
either negative 0.3% or 0% during 2022 and 
2023 for the same scenarios. 
These assumptions are therefore expected to 
drive GDP growth between 1.5% and 2.3% in 
2021, with a middle scenario of around 1.9%. 
But it is expected to rise to a range of 
between 1.6% and 2.9% in 2022 for all three 
scenarios, before stabilizing in 2023 between 
0.7% and 1.8%. 
As a result of the optimistic forecasts for the 
stability of oil and gas prices during the period 
(2021-2023) for the three scenarios, it is likely 
that the public finances will achieve a surplus 
ranging between 1.9% and 3.6% of GDP, as 
well as it is expected that the current account 
of the balance of payments will achieve a 
surplus ranging between 5.8% and 11.5% of 
GDP during the same period and for the 
same scenarios. 
With regard to the inflation rate of consumer 
prices, it is expected to witness imported and 
domestic inflationary pressures ranging from 
between 2% to 3.5% during the period (2021-
2023), due to the rise in prices of basic 
commodities in global markets caused by the 
bottlenecks in commodity supply chains that 
have been so visible since the onset of the 
Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the negative 
repercussions of expansionary financial and 
monetary policies. 
We, at the Planning and Statistics Authority, 
would like to thank everyone who contributed 
to the preparation of this report, and we 
extend our sincere thanks to all state 
agencies, as well as to those international 
organizations and institutions that have 
provided us with economic and social data.