Thinking, Fast and Slow

23: The Outside View
inside view and the outside view
: The labels are often misunderstood. Numerous authors
believed that the correct terms were “insider view” and “outsider view,” which are not
even close to what we had in mind.
very different answers
: Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, “Timid Choices and Bold
Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,” 
Management Science
39 (1993): 17–
31. Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, “Delusions of Success: How Optimism
Undermines Executives’ Decisions,” 
Harvard Business Review
81 (2003): 56–63.
“Pallid” statistical information
: Richard E. Nisbett and Lee D. Ross, 
Human Inference:
Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment
(Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall,
1980).
impersonality of procedures
: Fo {i>
How Doctors Think
(New York: Mariner Books,
2008), 6.

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planning fallacy
: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Intuitive Prediction: Biases and
Corrective Procedures,” 
Management Science
12 (1979): 313–27.
Scottish Parliament building
: Rt. Hon. The Lord Fraser of Carmyllie, “The Holyrood
Inquiry, 
Final 
Report,” 
September 
8, 
2004,
www.holyroodinquiry.org/FINAL_report/report.htm
.
did not become more reliant on it
: Brent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L.
Buhl, “How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?” 
Journal of the
American Planning Association
71 (2005): 131–46.
survey of American homeowners
: “2002 Cost vs. Value Report,” 
Remodeling
, November
20, 2002.
completion times
: Brent Flyvbjerg, “From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting
Risks Right,” 
Project Management Journal
37 (2006): 5–15.
sunk-cost fallacy
: Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer, “The Psychology of Sunk Cost,”
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
35 (1985): 124–40. Hal R.
Arkes and Peter Ayton, “The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational
Than Lower Animals?” 
Psychological Bulletin
125 (1998): 591–600.