Development finance assessment

slowly to meet the country’s financing needs.
Estimates from 2019 revealed Uzbekistan 
needs at least an additional, annual investment of USD 6 billion to meet the nationalized 
SDGs. Now, in 2020, the IMF estimates addressing the external shock and the domestic 
impact of COVID-19 will require an additional external financing of about USD 4 billion, or 7 
percent of GDP.
ESTIMATED AVAILABLE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
Estimated total 
development finance 
2019
(USD billion)
Public finance: 23,7
Private finance: 31,4
Total =
USD 55,1 bilion
2019
2020
SHIFTING COMPOSITION OF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE IN UZBEKISTAN
Sources: Author’s calculations based on IMF, OECD, Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan and World Bank data. 
Note:
Estimates and projections account for the impact of COVID-19 as per the latest available IMF data in May 2020. 
See Annex 2 for the details on the hypotheses for estimates and projections from 2019 onwards.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2017
2018
2019 (e) 2020 (p) 2021 (p) 2022 (p) 2023 (p) 2024 (p) 2025 (p)
%
o
f 
G
D
P
Covid-19
Government
revenue
Domestic debt
Private domestic
investment
Net ODA Received
Other Official Flows
External debt (LT,
flow)
FDI Inflow
Inward Remittances
Projected total 
development 
finance 2020
(USD billion)
Public finance: 
20,5
Private finance: 
24,7
Total = USD 45,1 
billion

---

7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The country’s SDG financing gap is projected to further widen in the immediate 
future. 
This DFA projects development finance flows to decrease from USD 55.1 billion (94 
percent of GDP) in 2019 to USD 45.1 billion (74 percent of GDP) in 2020. From 2021 onwards, 
total available development finance is projected to hover around 77 percent of GDP.
The composition of available development finance in Uzbekistan has changed since 
2017. Government revenue and spending dominated development finance flows prior to the 
COVID-19 crisis, but their share in total development finance is stagnating. Private domestic 
investment is projected to become the largest flow in the immediate future, pointing to 
the importance of more effectively engaging the private sector for financing sustainable 
development in Uzbekistan. Remittances have kept growing and became an increasingly 
critical source of external international development finance, significantly larger than FDI 
and ODA combined.