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165
“Young Scientist” . # 28 (370) . July 2021
Geography
adding the differences in the monthly percentile flows for the 
current and future month. This forecast, made in April 2019, is 
for Taloqan river flow at Chogha and is shown in Figure 5. The 
reason that the 30 % and 10 % forecast flows for June 2019 seem 
in the wrong order is related to the inaccuracy of high flow 
measurement discussed above.
Table 4. 
Calculation and percentiles sheet of the observed data
Figure 4. 
Percentiles of all recorded data for Taloqan River at Chogha
Figure 5. 
April 2019 forecast Taloqan River flow at Chogha
In Figure 6, the forecast flow is shown for the calendar year 
along with the monthly 90 % (low) and 10 % (high) and recorded 
June flows (the bars are for 2016, 2017 and 2018). The forecast 
has been extended to December 2019.

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166
«Молодой учёный» . № 28 (370) . Июль 2021 г.
География
Figure 6. 
Forecast Taloqan River flow at Chogha for the calendar year
Linking Water Forecast to Water Sharing
A conceptual process for water forecasting and allocation 
shown below in Figure 7. Given the data and implementation 
capacity expected in MEW and the SBA, there has been provided 
capacity building to staff of the Taloqan SBA to implement 
a simpler process of water forecasting and allocation which 
uses currently available data information and methods and in 
use within MEW, such as the Annual Water Forecast based on 
snowmelt.
Figure 7. 
Proposed water allocation process in Taloqan SBA

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167
“Young Scientist” . # 28 (370) . July 2021
Geography