European Economy. Economic Papers. Germany's growth performance in the 1990's

Table 1.3: Population (annual average growth)
D
(1)
F
I
UK
EUR
(2)
EU
(3)
US
JP
1971-2000
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.7
1991-2000
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
1.0
0.3
1991-1995
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.3
1996-2000
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.2
(1)
Data up to 1991 West Germany.
(2)
Euro-area excluding Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain
(3)
EU excluding Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain
Source : Commission services
Only during a couple of years before and after re-unification German population growth was
unusually high as a result of special factors. Particularly, a wave of so-called “ethnic
Germans” reached Germany in the wake of the opening-up of the Central and East European
countries. As a result, population growth in Germany was significantly higher between 1988
and 1993 than in any other of the large OECD countries
4
. By contrast, in the years preceding
and following that period German population expanded much more slowly and in line with its
longer-term trend (Figure 1.7).
Figure 1.7 German Population Growth (annual average)
Therefore, moving from total output to output per capita clearly reduces the longer-term
growth gap of Germany vis-à-vis its EMU/EU partners but also the US (Table 1.4). However,
the situation is different for the period between 1996 and 2000, for which a significant gap in
the growth rate of per capita income remains, particularly vis-à-vis the US but also in
comparison with the EMU/EU partner countries. Hence, while population accounts for much
of the growth differences between Germany and the other larger industrialised countries over
the longer term, apparently in the second half of the 1990s economic activity in Germany was
held back also by other factors.