STRATEgIC PERSPECTIvES
Although Islamic groups are not seriously en-
dangering
the Uzbek regime, because the
groups are yet too weak to influence all social
classes significantly, the country has to pay at-
tention to these movements. The Islamic Move-
ment of Uzbekistan (IMU) is the largest
extremist/terrorist threat to the country as the
group’s existence relies on the overthrow of Ka-
rimov. The IMU was driven out of Uzbekistan
and many IMU fighters are now Furthermore
according to Central Asian experts, Uzbekistan
is considered to be the country with the highest
potential for an unpredictable and maybe vio-
lent political transition among the former So-
viet republics.
Uzbekistan remains a strategic location for mil-
itary operations.
Despite the falling out be-
tween the EU and the U.S. and renewed
relations that followed, Uzbekistan is still attrac-
tive to Western countries. As the Islamic State
grows and the Central Asian states are faced
with external threats and their citizens who are
fighting in Syria and Iraq respectively expected
to return home, Uzbekistan understands their
use to those who wish to fight global terrorism.
MAJOR
EXTERNAL
PLAYERS
D
CHINA
Diplomatic relations between
China and the Central
Asian republics started with independence of the coun-
tries in December 1991. For China, Central Asia offers nu-
merous new opportunities. China is interested in
economic and security issues as the Chinese are con-
cerned about the Muslim Islamist or extremist move-
ments in this region. In China’s own western Xinjiang
Region, they face a rebellious Uighur population. For
transportation, Tajikistan and particularly Kyrgyzstan are
the
most important partners, as they serve as transit
countries for Chinese products, being the crossroads be-
tween West and East and are along the new Great Silk
Road. As the SCO is a high priority on Beijing’s agenda
and considered to be the second most important re-
gional
organization besides the AIIB, Uzbekistan’s ac-
ceptance or membership in the organization is very
much appreciated by China. China also needs Central
Asia states’ cooperation on the Silk Road Economic Belt
and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road projects
Central Asian republics gradually decreased their skep-
ticism towards Russia and China as the republics often
represented a Central Asian perspective in a global con-
text. Trade relations started to boom in 1998 after the
economic crisis in Russia.
62
Foreign trade with Central Asian countries is
now a top priority as China is aware of the huge
amount of natural resources as Chinese energy
demands increase. When it comes to China dis-
tributing developmental aid, it is clear that this
is characterized by a high degree of self-inter-
est. China invested in several Central Asian oil
and gas fields as well as pipeline infrastructure
to expand the energy partnership which will aid
Chinese economic growth. China also invests in
infrastructure and
exploration of natural re-
sources to benefit China’s own economy. In the
future, China will try to further strengthen its
position in the region and the new AIIB pro-
vides China that very opportunity. It plans to be
actively involved in the development of Central
Asia’s hydro-carbon sector and to improve the
related pipeline infrastructure. For this reason,
China is not only an attractive partner for Cen-
tral Asia but also for Russia, which currently
does not have enough
financial resources to
renovate the outdated huge Soviet-era pipeline
network in which most of Kazakhstan’s gas
flows through as Kazakhstan lacks its own self-
sufficient structure. China tries to boost Central
Asia’s purchasing power in order to enable
them to buy more Chinese products.
Furthermore, China knows that the U.S. in-
creased its presence due to the terror attacks on
September 11, 2001 and reduced engagement
with the region after Afghanistan and Iraq wars
ended, whereas China, due to its geographic
proximity, will stay engaged with the countries.
China understands Central Asia’s development
and state-building needs: improved and new
infrastructure, stronger ties to East Asia, and de-
velopment money and most importantly an al-
ternative to Russia. Russia’s assertive and
downright illegal actions in Crimea have many
Central Asian states spooked especially Kaza-
khstan.
China did not
only gain economic strength
within the last few years, but China also requires
military strength to fully exert its influence in
Central Asia.
The international community is concerned
about the huge defense and weapons spend-
ing, but China claims that these are only for de-
fense purposes. In contrast to Russia, the U.S.
and members of the European Union (EU) (Ger-
many), China lacks a permanent military pres-
ence in Central Asia but will take advantage of
the many regional organizations.
The Chinese Diaspora in Central Asia has been
significantly increasing since the collapse of the
Soviet Union due to the (easier) ability to mi-
grate. Particularly, the Uighurs and Dungans (a
Muslim people of Chinese origin), from the sup-
pressed Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region
(XUAR) of China are already form a considerable
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