114
C H A PT E R 5 Policy Makers and the Money Supply
government securities that were previously issued to fund prior levels of the national debt. The
Treasury set a formidable goal of conducting these new fi nancing needs and the refunding of
existing Treasury securities while attempting to minimize the interest costs on the national debt.
The Treasury’s second debt management goal involves effi
ciently managing the Treas-
ury’s cash fl ows associated with its fi nancing and refunding activities
in an uncertain environ-
ment. Debt management operations have to be conducted within an environment where there
are uncertainties relating to the size of net fi nancing needs, auction market demand conditions,
fi nancial market liquidity, economic conditions, and Fed monetary policy actions.
Market interest rates on Treasury securities fl uctuate, or change over time, with changes
in economic
conditions and expectations, and with the Fed’s monetary policies. The Treasury
could adjust the size and timing of its auctions to attempt to mitigate this economic/monetary
policy risk. Market interest rates, at a point in time, are generally lower for shorter-maturity
Treasury securities and higher for longer-maturity Treasury securities. In essence,
the longer
the maturity of a debt security, the greater the uncertainty the investor will feel concerning
future economic and fi nancial market conditions at maturity. As a consequence, investors
require a higher expected return for investing in longer-maturity debt securities. This is some-
times
referred to as term structure, or maturity risk. Furthermore, the values of longer-maturity
debt securities will change more (relative to shorter-maturity securities) given changes in mar-
ket interest rates. We explore the term, or maturity structure, of interest rates in Chapter 8 and
the impact on bond values given changes in market interest rates in Chapter 10.
The Treasury must continually make the trade-off decision
of whether to issue shorter-
maturity Treasury securities at generally lower interest rates and accept more frequent refund-
ing of these securities at times when the then-existing market interest rates may be at higher
levels due to changing economic conditions and Fed actions. The alternative would be to issue
longer-term Treasury securities at relatively higher interest rates in exchange for not having to
refund these securities until much further in the future.
The Treasury has benefi tted in its eff orts to manage its fi nancing budget defi cits and the
national debt in recent years due to the unusually low interest
rates that are the result of, in
part, the Fed’s easy money and quantitative easing eff orts initiated in late 2008. However, as
interest rates move back to more “normal” levels, and given the current size of the national
debt, concern is being expressed about how very large annual interest payments on the national
debt will impact on economic activity and the fi nancial markets.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: