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 Independent Advisory Council to the Stability Council



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Budget-Review-Germany

4.1.5. Independent Advisory Council to the Stability Council
The newly established Independent Advisory Council to the Stability Council (see
further discussion of the Stability Council in Section 2.2) is tasked with assisting the
Stability Council in “monitoring compliance with the upper limit for the structural general-
government deficit under Section 51 of the Budgetary Principles Act” (Section 7.1 of the
Stability Council Act).
15
If it concludes that the upper limit has not been complied with, it
is tasked with making recommendations to eliminate the excessive deficit and the Chair of
the Advisory Council will participate in the Stability Council’s consultations to ensure
recommendations are taken on board. Opinions and recommendations will also be
published.


BUDGET REVIEW: GERMANY
OECD JOURNAL ON BUDGETING – VOLUME 2014/2 © OECD 2015
47
The advisory council is comprised of a representative of the Deutsche Bundesbank,
the Council of Economic Experts, one representative from the research institutes involved
in preparing the JEF, four experts appointed by the Federation and the 
Länder
(two each
respectively via their representatives on the Stability Council) and two experts appointed
by the national associations of local authorities and the national organisations of the social
security funds.
4.1.6. Conclusions on independent economic input
The role of independent institutions in macroeconomic and tax revenue forecasting
fosters debate and consensus building and contributes to prudent and realistic assumptions
on the part of the federal government. The estimates of the working party on tax revenue
forecasting are adopted by the federal government as a basis for both the annual budget
preparation and the medium-term financial planning. And although the government is free
to prepare the annual budget and medium-term financial plan using its own macroeconomic
assumptions, considerable deviations from the Joint Economic Forecast, for example, would
certainly attract media and public attention and require careful explanation. 
Taken together the JEF and the recent establishment of the Independent Advisory
Council to the Stability Council meets new regulations in the Eurozone that require
member states to have independent bodies monitor compliance with fiscal rules and
produce or endorse macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts. However some criticism has
been levied at the Independent Advisory Council as being constructed with a view to
narrowly complying with new EU requirements. More generally, the preponderance of
bodies, with their varying degrees of independence and competing voices, at times
arguably fail to take into account widely agreed international good practice found, for
example, in the OECD Principles for Independent Fiscal Institutions.

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