FIGURE 1.11 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies Emerging market and developing economies have been hard hit by COVID-19, especially those with the highest number of cases and those reliant on services, tourism, or industrial commodity exports. Retail sales have stabilized at low levels amid large job and income losses, although the latter has been partially offset by resilient remittance inflows in some economies. The pickup in industrial activity has been tepid in commodity exporters due to weak extractive investment. Sources : Haver Analytics; International Labour Organization; Johns Hopkins University; Quayyum
and Kpodar (2020); World Bank; World Tourism Organization; World Trade Organization.
Note : EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries. “Industrial
commodity exporters” indicates EMDEs that export either energy or metals. “Largest service sector”
includes EMDEs in the top quartile of services as a share of the economy. “Tourism reliant” includes
EMDEs in the top quartile of inbound tourism expenditure as a share of GDP. “Highest COVID-19
cases” includes countries in the top quartile of COVID-19 cases per capita.
A. Data for 2020 are estimates. Aggregates calculated using 2020 U.S. dollar GDP at 2010 prices and
market exchange rates. Yellow lines indicate the interquartile range. Sample includes 113 EMDEs.
B. Figure shows the year-on-year growth of commercial-services exports measured in millions of U.S.
dollars. Sample includes 18 EMDEs for services exports and 27 EMDEs for tourist arrivals. Last
observation is September 2020.
C. Figure shows services measured as value added as a share of GDP. Orange horizontal line
indicates the simple average in EMDEs, which is about 52 percent. Sample includes 115 EMDEs.
D. Data are seasonally adjusted, based on data and methodology from Haver Analytics and Quayyum
and Kpodar (2020). Last observation is September 2020 for retail sales and remittances. Sample
includes 22 EMDEs.
E. Figure shows the equivalent number of full-time jobs (48 hours/week as measured by the
International Labor Organization) lost in 2020 as a percentage of the total employment for EMDEs in
2019. Data for 2020Q4 are International Labour Organization forecasts. “Informal employment” is
defined as in the January 2019
Global Economic Prospects report.
F. Last observation is October 2020.
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