Global outlook c h a p t e r 1

FIGURE 1.6 
Commodity markets
Most commodity prices rebounded over the second half of 2020. Oil prices 
partially recovered as production fell sharply, particularly among OPEC+; 
however, this rebound was more modest than the broader recovery in 
commodity prices as oil demand disappointed. The rise in metal prices 
was mainly driven by strong demand from China. Some regions 
experienced localized food price spikes, which exceeded the rise at the 
global level.
Sources
: Bloomberg; International Energy Agency (database); Organization of Petroleum Exporting 
Countries (OPEC); World Bank. 
Note:
OPEC+ = OPEC plus 10 additional oil exporters; EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe 
and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA = Middle East and North Africa,
SAR = South Asia, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. 
A. Last observation is November 2020. 
B. “Other OPEC” includes all current OPEC countries except Saudi Arabia, and Iran, Libya, and 
República Bolivariana de Venezuela, which are exempt from production cuts. “Other OPEC+” 
includes Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Oman, South Sudan, and Sudan. Last 
observation is November 2020. 
C. Data for December represent averages of daily prices. Last observation is December 15, 2020.
D. Regional aggregates follow World Bank classifications and are based on averages of over 155 
countries. Price change has been calculated as the year-on-year percent change for each month, 
averaged over January to November 2020. “World Index” represents the corresponding change of the 
World Bank’s Food Commodity Price Index. 
Click here to download data and charts.
 
A. Commodity price indexes
B. OPEC+ crude oil production
C. Metal prices
D. Regional and world food prices

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C H A P T E R 1 
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 1 
20 
contributes 
to 
firming 
consumption 
and 
investment—still above potential growth, but 
leaving output 3.8 percent below pre-pandemic 
trends. 
Japan
Early effective management of COVID-19, 
coupled with unprecedented fiscal support, 
powered a rebound in activity in the third quarter 
of 2020. This nascent recovery quickly lost 
momentum as a resurgence of COVID-19 
dampened consumption, even though the 
manufacturing sector continued to firm.
After contracting by an estimated 5.3 percent in 
2020, activity is expected to expand by 2.5 percent 
in 2021 as additional fiscal stimulus is 
implemented and, with new COVID-19 cases 
brough down to low levels, pandemic-control 
measures are gradually phased out. Growth is 
projected to tick down to 2.3 percent in 2022, 
leaving output 2.4 percent below its pre-pandemic 
trend.
China
Growth decelerated to an estimated 2 percent in 
2020—the slowest pace since 1976 but above 
previous projections, helped by effective control of 
the pandemic and public investment-led stimulus. 
The recovery has been solid but uneven, with 
consumer services trailing industrial production 
(figure 1.10.A). For most of last year, import 
growth lagged a rebound in exports, contributing 
to a widening current account surplus (figure 
1.10.B).
Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies led to 
a sharp increase in the government deficit and 
total debt (figures 1.10.C and 1.10.D; World 
Bank 2020h). Fiscal policy support, which initially 
focused on providing relief and boosting public 
investment, is starting to moderate.
Growth is forecast to pick up to 7.9 percent in 
2021, above previous projections due to the 
release of pent-up demand, and moderate to 5.2 
percent in 2022 as deleveraging efforts resume. 
Even as GDP returns to its pre-pandemic level in 
2021, it is still expected to be about 2 percent 
below its pre-pandemic projections by 2022, with