The McGraw-Hill Series Economics essentials of economics brue, McConnell, and Flynn Essentials of Economics



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first-
difference equation:
Y
t

Y
t

1
=
β
2
(
X
t

X
t

1
)
+
(
u
t

u
t

1
)
or

Y
t
=
β
2

X
t
+
ε
t
(12.9.7)
where 

is the first-difference operator introduced in Eq. (12.1.10).
Since the error term in Eq. (12.9.7) is free from (first-order) serial correlation (why?), to
run the regression (12.9.7) all one has to do is form the first differences of both the regres-
sand and regressor(s) and run the regression on these first differences.
The first-difference transformation may be appropriate if the coefficient of autocorrela-
tion is very high, say in excess of 0.8, or the Durbin–Watson
d
is quite low. Maddala has
proposed this rough rule of thumb:
Use the first-difference form whenever d
<
R
2
.
36
This is
the case in our wages–productivity regression (12.5.2), where we found that
d
=
0.2176 and
r
2
=
0
.
9845. The first-difference regression for our illustrative example will be presented
shortly.
An interesting feature of the first-difference model (12.9.7) is that 
there is no intercept
in it.
Hence, to estimate Eq. (12.9.7), you have to use the 
regression through the origin
routine (that is, suppress the intercept term), which is now available in most software pack-
ages. If, however, you forget to drop the intercept term in the model and estimate the fol-
lowing model that includes the intercept term

Y
t
=
β
1
+
β
2

X
t
+
ε
t

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