Climate risk country profile

FOREWORD

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2
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: UZBEKISTAN
• 
Average temperatures are projected to rise by 4.8°C in Uzbekistan by the 2090s, above the 1986–2005 
baseline under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5). This pace of warming significantly exceeds the 
projected global average.
• 
There is a significant 3.4°C gap between the temperature rise projected by 2080–2099 under the highest 
emissions pathway (RCP8.5), and the rise expected under the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6), indicating 
the large difference in outcomes for Uzbekistan achievable by reducing global emissions.
• 
Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to warm slightly faster than average temperatures,
a trend which may amplify impacts on human health, livelihoods, hydrological resources, and ecosystems.
• 
The annual probability of experiencing a severe drought is projected to increase significantly by the end of the 
century in all but the lowest emissions pathway, with severe drought conditions expected to occur in nine out 
of every ten years by the 2090s under emissions pathway RCP8.5.
• 
Increased temperatures and more rapid melting of glaciers elsewhere in the region may lead to severe water 
shortages along Uzbekistan’s most important rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, by the 2040s and 2050s. 
Runoff rates are also expected to become more variable and more seasonal due to the loss of the buffer 
provided by glacier meltwater.
• 
The projected temperature rise, increases in drought frequency, and water shortages in Uzbekistan are expected 
to reduce the yields of the country’s major crops by 25%–63% by the 2050s, relative to their 2000–2009 
baseline, under emissions pathway RCP6.0.
• 
Increases in average temperatures pose a threat to public health in Uzbekistan via heat stress and diseases 
such as acute intestinal infections, bacterial dysentery and an increased risk of a resurgence of malaria.
• 
Without support to adapt and reduce disaster risks, climate change impacts are likely to be unequal, affecting 
Uzbekistan’s poor and marginalized communities most.